A recent report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) has sounded the alarm on the possibility of school closures across England, particularly in London and the North East, as dwindling pupil numbers threaten the financial stability of educational institutions.
The EPI report projects a potential loss exceeding £1 billion in funding by 2030 due to declining pupil numbers, raising concerns about the viability of schools. According to the analysis, schools may be compelled to implement drastic measures such as mergers or closures to address the financial challenges posed by demographic changes.
Drawing from pupil projections and the EPI’s funding model, the report paints a concerning picture for the future of education funding. Under the scenario where schools receive a modest 0.5 per cent real terms increase in per-pupil funding annually, the overall funding for primary and secondary state schools could decline to £41.6 billion by 2029/30, down from a peak of £42.7 billion in 2024/25.
A significant contributing factor to this trend is the shift in pupil demographics, with a notable population bulge transitioning from primary to secondary schools. Previous warnings about the potential repercussions of this demographic shift have raised concerns about the possibility of school closures or mergers.
The report highlights the disproportionate impact of falling pupil numbers on school budgets. While pupil numbers decline, the fixed costs associated with running a school, including staffing, supplies, and utilities, remain largely unchanged. This disparity between falling revenue and fixed costs poses a significant challenge for schools, particularly those already operating on tight budgets.
A spokesperson for the EPI emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “The projected changes in the pupil population pose significant policy challenges for future governments.” They urged policymakers to carefully consider the implications of changes to the national funding formula on schools facing declining pupil numbers.
Responding to the report, a spokesperson for the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) cautioned against further funding cuts, describing them as potentially detrimental to children’s education. Instead, they advocated for maintaining current funding levels to sustain staffing and support smaller class sizes, particularly in areas experiencing a significant drop in pupil numbers.
The NAHT spokesperson stressed the importance of adopting a pragmatic, long-term approach, particularly in regions where the decline in pupil numbers is more pronounced. They cautioned against premature school closures, warning of the potential need for additional places in the future.
In response to the findings, a Department for Education spokesperson reiterated the government’s commitment to increasing school funding to £60.7 billion next year, the highest level ever in real terms per pupil. They underscored the role of the national funding formula in ensuring fair distribution of funding based on the needs of each school and its pupils.
The spokesperson also highlighted the responsibility of local authorities and academy trusts in managing the supply and demand of school places, in line with changing demographics.
As schools grapple with the financial implications of declining pupil numbers, the debate over the future of education funding intensifies. With mounting pressure on policymakers to address the challenges outlined in the EPI report, the fate of schools facing closure or mergers remains uncertain. The need for a sustainable and equitable solution to safeguard the education of future generations has never been more pressing.
