In navigating the intricate terrain of Israel and Palestine, the Labour Party confronts a deeply entrenched historical legacy. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, acutely mindful of the tumultuous Corbyn era, understands all too well the potential of this issue to ignite internal strife within the party.
Since 2020, Labour has strived to portray a significant shift away from the antisemitism controversies that plagued it under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. The party’s message has been clear: it is now a credible option for British Jews. This narrative appears to have resonated, with polls indicating a growing majority of Jewish voters supporting Labour.
The Corbyn years were marked by a surge in anti-Zionist sentiment not witnessed in Labour since the early 1980s. This period was marred by instances of antisemitic rhetoric and themes among grassroots members, party officials, and even MPs.
Steering Labour away from this turbulent era has broader implications for Starmer’s approach to the Middle East, particularly amidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel.
During the election campaign, Labour strategists faced a dilemma over whether issues concerning Gaza would significantly impact voters’ decisions. Despite the defeat of figures like George Galloway in Rochdale, constituencies such as Islington North (Corbyn’s former seat), Bristol Central, Dewsbury, Blackburn, Leicester South, Birmingham Yardley, and Ilford North saw Labour candidates facing tough challenges from pro-Gaza independents and third-party candidates.
Pressure Mounts
Starmer has faced criticism from Labour’s left-wing for what some perceive as a delayed response in advocating for a ceasefire and providing humanitarian aid to Gaza following Hamas’s actions in October 2023. However, the Prime Minister has been cautious, wary of aligning Labour too closely with the far-left factions, whose reactions to the events of October 7th have sparked controversy.
Labour’s election manifesto stressed the need for a Gaza ceasefire, although the party stepped back from its 2019 commitment to immediate unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood. Starmer argues that statehood recognition should be part of a broader international effort towards a renewed peace process aimed at achieving a two-state solution.
Challenges Ahead
Starmer’s current challenge lies in balancing these moderate stances with the expectations of his backbenchers. This balance will be tested if, as expected, the Gaza conflict persists and progress towards a two-state solution remains elusive.
Policy discussions within Labour’s Friends of Israel group indicate Starmer’s desire for the UK to take a more active role in peace efforts. This could include establishing an international fund for Israeli-Palestinian peace, involving the US, EU, G7 members, and the Arab League, possibly within the first 100 days of a Labour administration.
However, optimism about diplomatic progress remains muted, given the entrenched positions of Hamas and the policies of Israel’s current leadership.
Avoiding Corbyn-era Policies
While Starmer is unlikely to revert to the rhetoric and policies of the Corbyn era, pressure may mount for a tougher stance against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Reports suggest that the new Labour government will withdraw a legal challenge to the ICC, which concerns the issuance of an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes.
During the election campaign, Fabian Hamilton, a former shadow minister under Corbyn, hinted at halting British arms sales to Israel under a Labour government. However, this stance has not been confirmed by the party leadership. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is expected to review legal advice provided to Rishi Sunak’s government in May, which concluded that current arms sales to Israel do not breach international law.
Aligning with the US
Starmer aims to align Britain’s stance with that of the US under President Biden, which may involve targeted sanctions against Israeli extremists, possibly even those in government. This approach could be balanced with actions against Israel’s regional adversaries, including moves to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.
Historical Context
Since the 1960s, Labour leaders have preferred to align British policy towards the Arab-Israeli conflict with Europe or in conjunction with the US. However, Starmer’s ability to maintain this alignment could be affected by factors such as a potential second term for Donald Trump or the rise of the far-right in Europe.
Limits of British Influence
Ultimately, it is crucial to maintain perspective. Both Israelis and Palestinians may view British intervention in their affairs with scepticism. Moreover, Starmer faces formidable domestic challenges in economic and social policy, making it unlikely he will risk reopening Labour’s internal divisions over an international crisis that, while significant, is but one among many.
In conclusion, while discussions of justice for Palestinians and security for Israelis are important, it is essential to acknowledge the constraints of British influence in shaping events in the Middle East. As Richard Crossman cautioned in the aftermath of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, British politicians must avoid falling into a state of post-imperial delusion, perpetually seeking to assert influence where their impact may be limited.
The path ahead for Starmer and Labour remains fraught with challenges, balancing international responsibilities with domestic priorities in a complex and volatile region.
