2025 MLB Breakout Candidates: Players Ready to Shine
Each year, I compile a list of MLB players who have lost their rookie or prospect status but are poised for significant improvement. These players often fly under the radar but show signs of growth, whether through skill development, role changes, or consistent trends in their performance. Last year’s list was shorter than usual, with mixed results. Hunter Greene stood out as the breakout star, delivering a 6.3 WAR and a 2.75 ERA, which was nearly two runs better than his previous career average. However, other players like C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, and Maikel Garcia didn’t quite live up to expectations despite promising starts. This year, I’m confident that the following players will make significant strides in their careers.
Ivan Herrera: The Cardinals’ Emerging Catcher
Ivan Herrera, the St. Louis Cardinals’ catcher, has always been known for his impressive bat and contact skills. Last season, he finally got a chance to showcase his abilities in a more extended role, playing nearly half a season and posting a 1.7 bWAR. Herrera’s hard-hit rate and exit velocities were around the MLB median for catchers, which is a promising sign. For 2025, I project him to double his WAR, assuming he gets more at-bats. The only concern is his defensive struggles, particularly in controlling the running game—a critical area for the Cardinals, who have been selective about their catchers since the retirement of Yadier Molina. If Herrera can improve defensively, he could become a well-rounded contributor for St. Louis.
Jo Adell: A Prospect Rebirth with the Angels
Jo Adell’s career trajectory is one of the most intriguing stories in baseball. After being rushed to the majors in 2020 and struggling for years, Adell finally showed signs of growth in 2024. He played regularly for the first time and posted a 0.9 WAR, cutting his strikeout rate to 27.9% and recording a 90 wRC+, his best performance to date. While he struggled against fastballs last year, this seems like a minor hiccup in an otherwise positive trend. Adell is making more contact, hitting the ball harder, and swinging less overall. If he can maintain this progress, 2025 could be his official breakout season, cementing his place as one of the great prospect comeback stories of the decade.
Junior Caminero: The Rays’ Power-Hitting Third Baseman
Junior Caminero is one of the most hyped players in baseball, and for good reason. As the No. 3 prospect entering 2024, he barely lost his rookie eligibility last season but left no doubt about his potential. Caminero’s ability to hit is undeniable, and the only question is whether his breakout will happen in 2025 or later. Given his talent, it’s hard to imagine him waiting much longer. The Rays’ schedule, which includes games at Steinbrenner Field (a venue with dimensions similar to Yankee Stadium), could also favor Caminero and other left-handed power hitters like Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda. Expect Caminero to deliver at least a 4 WAR season—a modest expectation for a player of his caliber.
Spencer Arrighetti: A Pitcher on the Cusp of Stardom
Spencer Arrighetti’s 2024 season was a mixed bag. His four-seamer, which has excellent run and extension, underperformed, getting hit hard and costing him -6 runs. However, Arrighetti’s ability to miss bats and handle both lefties and righties suggests he has the tools to start. With a bit of refinement in his fastball location and sequencing, I expect him to jump from 0.3 bWAR to around 2 WAR in a full season. He has the potential to become a key contributor for the Houston Astros, provided he can iron out the issues that plagued him last year. The ingredients are there; it’s just a matter of execution.
James Wood and Brooks Lee: Two Players Ready to Deliver
James Wood, the Washington Nationals’ outfielder, is a polarizing figure. His immense power potential (I’m predicting 30 homers) comes with a high strikeout rate (likely around 190 Ks), and his large strike zone makes him vulnerable to exploitation by pitchers. That said, Wood is better defensively than his 2024 performance suggested, and I believe he’ll surprise people with his ability to track fly balls and close on them. If he can harness his raw tools, he could become a dynamic force in the outfield.
Brooks Lee, the Minnesota Twins’ infielder, had a disappointing 2024 season marred by injuries and a significant drop in his power output. His average exit velocity fell from 90.5 mph in 2023 to 86.4 mph last year, and his top-end power also diminished. However, Lee still squares up the ball consistently and rarely whiffs, which are promising signs. Assuming his back and shoulder issues are behind him, I expect Lee to bounce back in 2025 as a 2.5+ WAR player. Health will be key, but the talent is undeniably there.
Other Names to Watch: Breakout Candidates on the Bubble
While the players mentioned above are my top picks for breakouts, there are a few others who could also make significant strides, though with less certainty.
- Logan O’Hoppe (C, Los Angeles Angels) had a strong 2024 season with 2.7 bWAR and 20 homers but faded in the second half. With more experience and a capable backup in Travis d’Arnaud, he should sustain his production better this year.
- Miguel Vargas (3B, Chicago White Sox) and Curtis Mead (UT, Tampa Bay Rays) both excelled in the minors but struggled in their first extended MLB action. Vargas has reportedly worked on his swing and physical conditioning, but until we see results, it’s hard to buy in.
- Max Meyer (RHP, Miami Marlins) has the potential to improve, especially if he refines his four-seamer and avoids being relegated to the bullpen too soon. His slider is already an effective pitch, and regression to the mean could lead to better results in 2025.
- Seth Halvorsen and Angel Chivilli (RHP, Colorado Rockies) are relievers with opportunities to step into high-leverage roles. Halvorsen has elite stuff but needs to refine his command, while Chivilli offers a more polished three-pitch mix and better control.
Conclusion: Why These Players Are Poised for Success
This year’s list of breakout candidates reflects a mix of raw talent, improved skills, and strategic opportunities. Players like Ivan Herrera, Jo Adell, Junior Caminero, and Brooks Lee have the tools and circumstances to takes significant steps forward in their careers. Others, like Miguel Vargas and Max Meyer, are on the cusp but need to prove they can translate their potential into results. Whether through better health, refined mechanics, or increased playing time, these players have the chance to redefine their careers and make a lasting impact in 2025.
