The Trump Effect: How the Former U.S. President is Boosting Global Leaders’ Popularity
Introduction: The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Rhetoric
U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on world leaders have had an unexpected outcome: they have bolstered the approval ratings of those he has targeted. Leaders such as outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and even relatively unpopular European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have seen their popularity rise as Trump’s criticisms have been perceived as an “external threat.” Experts like political science professor Matthew Lebo argue that Trump’s rhetoric has inadvertently united citizens behind their leaders, creating a “rally around the flag” effect. This phenomenon, where national leaders gain support during times of crisis or perceived external threats, has historically been observed in moments like the Gulf War and the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. However, Trump’s unique brand of diplomacy has flipped this script, turning his verbal jabs into a boon for the leaders he criticizes.
The Zelenskyy and Trudeau Resurgence
One of the most striking examples of this trend is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Despite his approval ratings dropping from over 80% in 2022 to around 60% last November amid the ongoing war with Russia, Trump’s verbal attacks—including calling Zelenskyy a “dictator”—have reversed this decline. A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology showed Zelenskyy’s trustworthiness jumped from 57% to 67% during the period when Trump leveling criticisms. Similarly, in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose approval ratings had hit historic lows, saw his popularity rise to 34% from 22% as Trump escalated tariffs and even floated the idea of annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state. The Liberal Party, which Trudeau led until recently, has also regained ground in the polls, overtaking the Conservatives for the first time since 2021.
A Leadership Boost for Macron and Starmer
In Europe, Trump’s influence has also had a profound impact on the fortunes of leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. Both leaders, who have taken prominent roles in supporting Ukraine, have seen small but noticeable increases in their approval ratings. Macron’s popularity rose by seven points to 31%, while Starmer’s net approval climbed by 10 points, albeit still remaining in negative territory at minus 23. These increases are modest but significant for leaders who have otherwise struggled to connect with their electorates. The same poll that measured Macron and Starmer’s gains also highlighted Zelenskyy’s improving numbers, suggesting that Trump’s rhetorical broadsides have created a unified response across several countries.
The Psychology of National Unity
The phenomenon of leaders gaining popularity in the face of criticism from Trump can be attributed to a psychological response known as the “rally around the flag” effect. This occurs when citizens unite behind their leaders during times of perceived external threats, viewing domestic political differences as less significant in the face of a common adversary. Political scientist Matthew Lebo explains that Trump’s attacks have become a unifying force, with voters in various countries expressing solidarity with their leaders as a form of patriotism. This effect is not new—former U.S. President George W. Bush saw his approval ratings soar after the 9/11 attacks, and his father, George H.W. Bush, experienced a similar bump during the Gulf War. However, Trump’s role as the external threat is unprecedented, given his polarizing rhetoric and unconventional style of diplomacy.
The Mixed Impact on Elections and Opposition Parties
While Trump’s influence has boosted the fortunes of incumbent leaders, it has not universally benefited all political parties. In the United States, for instance, the Democratic Party has not seen a similar polling bump. A recent Quinnipiac poll found the party’s approval rating at an all-time low of 21%, compared to a record-high 40% for Republicans. This stark contrast highlights the complex and varied ways in which Trump’s influence is shaping global politics. Across the border in Canada, the Liberal Party’s resurgence has set the stage for a potentially competitive election, with newly elected Liberal leader Mark Carney positioning himself as a vocal opponent of Trump. Carney’s strategy appears to resonate with voters, who are increasingly prioritizing leadership that can stand up to the former U.S. president.
The Road Ahead: Trump’s Global Legacy
As the world continues to grapple with the implications of Trump’s presidency, one thing is clear: his influence extends far beyond U.S. borders. His rhetoric and policies have become a defining issue in international politics, shaping the fortunes of leaders and parties in ways that are both unexpected and profound. For leaders like Macron, Starmer, and Zelenskyy, Trump’s attacks have provided a much-needed lifeline, allowing them to reframe their struggles as a defense of national sovereignty. Conversely, for political opponents like the U.S. Democratic Party, Trump’s dominance has proven to be a double-edged sword, galvanizing support for Republicans while leaving Democrats at a historic low. As the global political landscape continues to evolve, one question looms large: will Trump’s legacy as a unifying force for foreign leaders endure, or will it fade as his influence wanes? Only time will tell.
