The Pressures of Forming a New Government in Berlin
The recent German federal election has set the stage for a challenging period as the nation faces pressing domestic and foreign policy issues. With the dust settling post-election, the focus shifts to the formation of a new government, a task fraught with urgency. Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is under considerable pressure to swiftly form a stable coalition, primarily with the Social Democrats (SPD), to address critical concerns such as peace in Europe, economic stability, and social equity. Merz’s agenda notably includes migration policy, heightened by recent violent incidents involving non-Germans, which have dominated media coverage.
Navigating a Tricky Transatlantic Relationship
The re-election of Donald Trump has introduced uncertainty into Germany’s support for Ukraine, complicating transatlantic relations. As the US and Russia edge closer to a potential deal on Ukraine’s future, Germany’s role in Europe’s security architecture is under scrutiny. Rafael Loss of the European Council on Foreign Relations highlights that geopolitical challenges will be a priority for the new government. Merz has expressed concerns about Trump’s impact on Europe, emphasizing the need for robust defense capabilities. With Trump’s administration potentially less invested in European security, Germany and Europe face heightened anxiety, especially given Russia’s assertive posture and rising energy costs.
reseting EU Relationships: A Delicate Balance
Germany’s relationships with key EU partners like France and Poland have been strained under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, the election outcome presents an opportunity for Merz to reset these crucial alliances. Loss suggests that Merz’s leadership could bring new momentum to European policy, though it may not necessarily align with a strongly EU-centric approach. Instead, Merz might favor ‘coalitions of the willing,’ indicating a more flexible approach to collaboration. Despite this, the challenges posed by Russia, the US, and China necessitate comprehensive engagement on all fronts, underscoring the need for a strategic European stance.
The Defence Spending Dilemma: Financing Security
A significant challenge for the incoming government is financing increased defence spending, particularly in light of the Russian threat. This issue previously led to the collapse of the "traffic light" coalition. Loss emphasizes that the enormous sums required for defence and infrastructure cannot be met through budget reallocation, debt, or taxes alone, necessitating a balanced approach. A potential CDU-SPD coalition could offer stability, but achieving the necessary two-thirds majority in the Bundestag for constitutional reforms will require cooperation from other parties, including the Greens and The Left, despite their differing views on foreign policy.
Economic and Social Challenges: Reviving a Nation
Domestically, Germany grapples with inflated energy costs and a cost of living crisis, eroding public trust in traditional parties. This discontent is reflected in the far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) record 20% vote share, particularly in the former East Germany, where infrastructure issues persist. Schools are deteriorating, and there is a shortage of kindergartens, underscoring the need for heavy infrastructure investment. Addressing these issues programmatically will require political parties, both in government and opposition, to take responsibility, with the Greens and The Left likely playing crucial roles.
The Rise of the Far-Right and Its Implications
The AfD’s surge in support signals a broader disillusionment with mainstream politics, particularly in Eastern Germany. This trend mirrors a growing polarization in German society, with implications for the political landscape. The new government must address not only the economic and social grievances but also the existential concerns of citizens feeling left behind. As Germany navigates its future, the challenge will be to reconcile the need for stability with the imperative of addressing the diverse needs of its population, ensuring that the rise of far-right ideologies does not undermine social cohesion and democratic values.
