The Global Race for Critical Minerals: A New Geopolitical Frontier
The world is in the midst of a quiet but intense race for critical minerals, and the stakes have never been higher. These minerals, which include lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and others, are the backbone of modern technology, from smartphones and electric vehicles to artificial intelligence and advanced military equipment. As global demand for these resources continues to grow, countries are scrambling to secure reliable supplies. At the heart of this race is a shifting geopolitical landscape, with the United States and China vying for dominance. For the U.S., Canada has emerged as a key player, thanks to its vast reserves of critical minerals. U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants to reduce American reliance on China for these resources, and Canada is firmly in his sights.
Trump’s Ambitious Plan to Expand Critical Mineral Production
President Trump has made the race for critical minerals a central part of his agenda, and he is leaving no stone unturned in his efforts to secure America’s position in this race. In a recent address to Congress, Trump announced plans to sign executive orders aimed at dramatically expanding the production of critical minerals and rare earths in the U.S. This move is part of a broader strategy to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly China, which currently dominates the global critical minerals market. However, Trump’s ambitions go beyond U.S. borders. He is also pushing mineral-rich countries like Canada, Ukraine, and Greenland to join his cause, even if it means bending the rules of international diplomacy.
Canada’s Strategic Reserves: A Prime Target for Trump
Canada’s rich reserves of critical minerals have made it a prime target for Trump’s ambitions. The country is home to strategic reserves of minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements, all of which are essential for the production of advanced technologies. According to Gracelin Baskaran, a director at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, Canada has reserves that the U.S. lacks, making it an ideal partner—or target—in Trump’s quest for mineral security. However, Trump’s approach has raised eyebrows, particularly after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revealed that Trump has made “very real” threats to annex Canada to gain control over its critical minerals. While the White House has not denied these claims, Trump has made no secret of his desire to acquire strategic resources, even if it means overstepping international boundaries.
The Rise of China and the Need for Diversification
China’s dominance in the critical minerals industry has long been a source of concern for the U.S. and its allies. Not only does China have vast reserves of these minerals, but it has also acquired controlling stakes in mining companies around the world, including in Canada. Today, China controls at least 60% of global critical mineral production, giving it significant leverage in the global market. This dominance has led to fears that China could “weaponize” these minerals, as it has done in the past by imposing export restrictions. For the U.S. and Canada, reducing reliance on China is not just about economic security—it’s about national security. As Diya Jiang, a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, warns, if China were to cut off supplies of critical minerals to North America, it could have devastating consequences for the production of essential technologies and military equipment.
Building a New Alliance: The U.S.-Canada Critical Minerals Partnership
In response to these challenges, the U.S. has been working to build a network of like-minded countries to diversify its critical minerals supply chain. Canada has been at the forefront of this effort, thanks to its abundant reserves and well-developed mining sector. In 2022, the U.S. launched the Minerals Security Partnership, a 15-member alliance aimed at broadening the global supply chain for critical minerals. Canada was the first country to be approached, and the partnership has already led to significant investments in Canadian mining operations. Jose W. Fernandez, the former undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and environment, has praised Canada’s role in this initiative, noting that the country is not just a source of resources but also a trusted partner in building a more secure and sustainable minerals supply chain.
The Future of Critical Minerals: Opportunities and Challenges
As the race for critical minerals continues to heat up, both the U.S. and Canada face significant opportunities and challenges. For Canada, the demand for its critical minerals presents a chance to boost its economy and assert itself as a global leader in the industry. However, there are also risks, particularly if the country becomes too reliant on a single market or if it fails to address concerns over environmental and social sustainability. In the U.S., Trump’s aggressive tactics have raised questions about the ethics of mineral diplomacy, with critics warning that coercion and threats are no substitute for building positive trade relationships. As the world moves forward in this new geopolitical era, the outcome of the race for critical minerals will depend on how well countries can balance their economic and strategic interests while upholding the principles of fairness and cooperation.
