The Fragile Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas: What Comes Next?
The first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which paused 15 months of brutal warfare, is set to end on Saturday, leaving a cloud of uncertainty over what the future holds. The conflict, triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, has been marked by immense suffering, and the current truce has provided only temporary relief. The ceasefire was Designed to allow for the release of hostages and the exchange of prisoners, but tensions remain high, and negotiations for the next phase have yet to begin in earnest.
Phase 1: A Tenuous Start
The first phase of the ceasefire, which began in late 2023, was intended to lay the groundwork for more comprehensive negotiations. Hamas agreed to release 25 living hostages and the bodies of four captives in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. While Hamas has so far fulfilled its obligations under this phase, releasing all 25 living hostages and the bodies of four captives, the process has been fraught with challenges. The release of four additional bodies, expected to take place on Thursday, remains uncertain, adding to the growing tensions between the two sides.
Israel, on its part, has delayed the release of some 600 Palestinian prisoners, citing concerns over the treatment of the hostages. The hostages, who were paraded before crowds upon their release, were reportedly subjected to harsh conditions during their captivity. TheirPoor physical state and public displays have caused outrage in Israel, leading to further delays in prisoner releases and straining the fragile truce. Despite these challenges, the first phase has provided a temporary halt to the fighting, allowing aid to flow into Gaza and offering a glimmer of hope for further progress.
However, the expiry of the first phase has raised questions about what comes next. Israel is reportedly seeking an extension of the first phase to secure the release of more captives, but Hamas has made it clear that it will not negotiate further until the delayed prisoner releases are completed. This standoff highlights the deep mistrust and animosity that continue to characterize the relationship between Israel and Hamas.
Phase 2: The Bigger Challenge
The second phase of the ceasefire was always expected to be the most challenging. Under this phase, Hamas is demanding a lasting ceasefire, the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, and the release of additional Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remaining living hostages. This phase will force Israel to make difficult decisions, balancing its commitment to securing the safe return of all hostages with its broader strategic goals, including the weakening of Hamas and ensuring its own security.
Hamas, though weakened by the war, remains firmly in control of Gaza, with no internal challengers to its authority. The group has made it clear that it will not lay down its arms unless Israel ends its occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem—territories captured in the 1967 Middle East war and sought by Palestinians for a future state. Hamas has also dismissed Israel’s suggestion that its Gaza leadership go into exile, further complicating the negotiations.
The second phase will also involve the exchange of remains, a process that is expected to be emotionally and politically fraught. The reconstruction of Gaza, which is expected to take years and cost billions of dollars, will only begin once the second phase is completed. The daunting scale of this task, combined with the political and diplomatic challenges, underscores the difficulty of achieving a lasting resolution to the conflict.
Mediators and Mixed Signals
Egypt, which has played a key role in mediating the ceasefire, has refused to discuss an extension of the first phase until negotiations over the second phase begin. This stance reflects the complexity of the situation and the need for all parties to demonstrate a genuine commitment to the peace process. Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s Middle East envoy, has returned to the region in an effort to extend the first phase and buy more time for negotiations. However, his efforts have been complicated by the mixed signals sent by President Donald Trump, who has taken credit for the ceasefire while also proposing controversial ideas, such as the relocation of Gaza’s population to other countries and U.S. control over the territory.
These proposals have been met with widespread rejection, not only from Palestinians and Arab countries but also from human rights groups, who argue that such a plan could violate international law. Despite the backlash, Trump has shown no signs of backing down, further muddying the waters and creating confusion about the U.S. position on the conflict. Netanyahu, on the other hand, has welcomed the idea, though it is unclear whether he is serious about pursuing it or simply using it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Hamas.
The Impact of Phase 1
The first phase of the ceasefire has done little to ease the deep-seated mistrust between Israel and Hamas. The release of hostages has been accompanied by public spectacles that have further inflamed tensions. Hostages have been paraded before crowds, forced to smile, wave, and deliver statements, and in one case, even kiss a masked militant on the head. These images have caused outrage in Israel and have led to calls for a tougher stance against Hamas.
The treatment of the hostages has also raised questions about the humanity of the conflict and the willingness of both sides to respect the basic rights of those caught in the crossfire. The harsh conditions under which the hostages were held, as well as the public displays of their captivity, have deepened the sense of bitterness and resentment, making it even more difficult to achieve a lasting peace.
Moreover, the first phase has also seen ongoing violence and controversy. Hamas has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by killing dozens of people who the Israeli army claims had approached its forces or entered unauthorized areas. Israel has also been criticized for its slow response to the entry of aid into Gaza, including mobile homes and equipment for clearing rubble, which only began to arrive late last week. Additionally, there have been reports of the abuse of Palestinian prisoners prior to their release, further straining relations between the two sides.
The Broader Implications
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has far-reaching implications, not only for the people of Gaza and Israel but also for the broader region and the international community. The war has displaced tens of thousands of Palestinians, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and raising concerns about the long-term stability of the region. The Israeli military operation in the occupied West Bank, which has displaced some 40,000 Palestinians, has also drawn criticism from the United Nations and international human rights groups.
The involvement of external actors, such as the United States and Egypt, has added another layer of complexity to the conflict. While Egypt has played a crucial role in mediating the ceasefire, its refusal to discuss an extension of the first phase until negotiations over the second phase begin reflects the need for all parties to demonstrate a genuine commitment to the peace process. The mixed signals sent by President Trump, including his controversial proposal to relocate Gaza’s population, have further complicated the situation and raised questions about the U.S. role in the conflict.
In light of these challenges, the expiry of the first phase of the ceasefire has brought the conflict to a critical juncture. The failure to reach an agreement on the next phase could lead to a resumption of fighting, with devastating consequences for the people of Gaza and the wider region. While there is still hope for a peaceful resolution, the path forward will require difficult compromises and a willingness to address the underlying issues that have fueled the conflict for decades.
