Sudan’s War Reaches a Critical Juncture: Understanding the Conflict and Its Implications
The war in Sudan has reached a pivotal point after nearly two years of intense fighting, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, millions of displaced people, and numerous atrocities. The conflict, which began in April 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a notorious paramilitary group. Recently, the military has made significant advances, pushing deeper into the Greater Khartoum area and reclaiming key territories, including parts of the capital city and its surroundings. This shift in momentum has raised questions about the future of the war and the potential for further fragmentation of the country.
The Current Situation on the Ground
The conflict erupted when tensions between the SAF and RSF, once allies in overthrowing Sudan’s civilian government, boiled over into violence. The two groups were initially united in their opposition to a democratic transition following the 2019 uprising but eventually turned against each other in a brutal struggle for power. Since then, at least 20,000 people have been killed, and over 14 million have been displaced, with parts of the country facing famine.
In recent weeks, the military has regained control of several strategic areas, including parts of White Nile and Gezira provinces, and broken an RSF siege in North Kordofan. These advances mark the first time the SAF has halted RSF momentum for an extended period, according to analysts. However, the RSF still maintains control over large swathes of western Sudan, particularly in Darfur, where it has launched new offensives. The ongoing fighting has disrupted humanitarian aid, with organizations like Doctors Without Borders forced to suspend operations in some areas due to heavy violence.
Will the War End if the Military Retakes Khartoum?
If the SAF succeeds in retaking Khartoum, it may mark the beginning of a new phase of the conflict rather than its resolution. Analysts warn that a military victory in the capital could lead to the de facto partition of Sudan into zones controlled by the SAF and the RSF. Such a division would likely be unstable and could lead to further violence. Neither side has shown a willingness to engage in meaningful peace talks, with both leaders—Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the SAF and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF—determined to continue fighting.
Moreover, the SAF’s advances have been made possible by a coalition of armed factions, including former Darfur rebels and Islamist brigades, which are united primarily by their opposition to the RSF. These alliances could fracture if the military secures Khartoum, leading to further instability. Meanwhile, the RSF continues to hold significant territory, including much of Darfur, where it has recently escalated its offensive.
The Significance of the RSF’s Parallel Government
In a move that could deepen Sudan’s divisions, the RSF and its allies announced the establishment of a parallel government during a recent gathering in Nairobi, Kenya. The new government, outlined in a 16-page charter, calls for a “secular, democratic, and decentralized state” while emphasizing the need to maintain Sudan’s territorial integrity. Analysts view this as an attempt by the RSF to achieve political legitimacy, as it cannot yet secure a military victory.
The creation of a parallel government raises the possibility of two rival administrations vying for power, further entrenching Sudan’s fragmentation. Pro-democracy activists warn that this could lead to a dangerous stage of disintegration, more perilous than the simple division into two stable states. The RSF’s move has also drawn criticism from international figures, including U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, who accused Kenya of legitimizing the RSF’s “genocidal rule” by hosting the conference.
The Human Cost and Shifting Alliances
The conflict has had a devastating impact on Sudanese civilians. While some displaced persons have begun returning to their homes in areas recently secured by the military, conditions in contested regions remain dire. In North Darfur, for example, fighting has left communities without access to basic necessities like water, food, and medical care, with the situation described as “catastrophic.” Aid workers report that the RSF continues to target civilians, complicating efforts to deliver humanitarian assistance.
The conflict has also strained Sudan’s political landscape, with some factions aligning themselves with the RSF despite its brutal history. The RSF’s ties to the UAE and its role in past atrocities, including those committed during the Darfur genocide, have not deterred some Sudanese groups from supporting it, particularly those distrustful of the military’s Islamist ties. However, the pro-democracy movement remains divided, with some leaders denouncing the RSF’s actions while others, like the SPLM-N, have joined forces with it.
The Road Ahead: Implications for Sudan’s Future
The developments in Sudan suggest a protracted and increasingly complex conflict. The military’s advances and the RSF’s parallel government highlight the deepening divides within the country, with no clear path to peace in sight. International actors, including the United States and regional powers, have condemned the violence but have yet to exert meaningful pressure to halt the fighting.
As the conflict drags on, the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with millions of Sudanese facing hunger, displacement, and violence. The fragmentation of the country into rival zones controlled by the SAF and RSF could become a long-term reality, undermining hopes for a unified and stable Sudan. Without a negotiated settlement, the war threatens to destabilize the region further, leaving the Sudanese people to bear the brunt of the ongoing violence and political turmoil.
