Russia Escalates Drone and Missile Attacks on Ukraine Following Trump’s Return to Office
Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2024, Russia has significantly ramped up its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, according to data compiled by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The surge in attacks has coincided with heightened tensions and renewed violence in the region, raising concerns about the prospects for peace negotiations. In recent days, several regions in Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa, have faced devastating strikes, resulting in civilian casualties and widespread destruction. The ISW has warned that these escalations suggest Russia is intent on obstructing progress toward a resolution to the conflict. Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment, but no official response has been received as of yet.
A Grim Surge in Violence
The ISW’s daily tracking of Russian strikes reveals a clear pattern of escalation since President Trump’s inauguration. In the first three weeks of 2024, Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukraine averaged between 110 and 120 per day. However, on January 21, Trump’s first full day in office, the number of attacks spiked to 150. Over the next six weeks, the intensity of these strikes fluctuated, with approximately two dozen days seeing fewer than 150 attacks. Notably, the ISW reported a peak of 270 attacks on February 23, just one week after a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This stark increase in aggression underscores Moscow’s apparent unwillingness to de-escalate, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Ukraine’s Push for Peace and Russia’s Refusal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized that his government is actively exploring pathways to accelerate peace negotiations with Russia. However, George Barros, the head of ISW’s Russia and geospatial intelligence team, has pointed out that Russia, not Ukraine, remains the primary obstacle to achieving peace. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Barros highlighted that Ukraine has made several concessions to initiate peace talks, while Russia has offered none. He also noted that the surge in drone and missile strikes since Trump’s inauguration directly contradicts the notion that Kyiv is hindering progress. This dynamic has left many analysts questioning whether meaningful negotiations are even possible while Russia continues to escalate its military campaign.
Devastating Impact on Civilians
The recent wave of attacks has left a trail of destruction and human suffering across Ukraine. On Friday, Russian drones and missiles struck multiple regions, including Donetsk Oblast, where at least 11 people were killed and 30 injured in the city of Dobropillia. Governor Vadym Filashkin described the attack as “one of the most brutal in recent times,” with eight apartment buildings damaged and more people feared trapped under the rubble. In response, the region declared a day of mourning. Additionally, a drone attack on a civilian business in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast, claimed the lives of at least three people and injured seven others. Further south, drone debris caused a large fire in Zaporizhzhia, while an industrial building and petrol station in Odesa were also hit. These attacks have once again underscored the tragic consequences of the ongoing conflict for Ukrainian civilians.
International Reactions and Analysis
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a nonprofit dedicated to preventing and resolving conflicts, has weighed in on the situation. In a recent statement, the ICG noted that both the current and previous U.S. administrations have been unwilling to provide Ukraine with the security guarantees it seeks in a potential peace settlement. The group suggested that Kyiv and its European allies must now consider alternative approaches to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security, as continued reliance on Washington for guarantees appears to be a “closed door.” Meanwhile, George Barros of the ISW has been vocal about the role of Russian aggression in perpetuating the conflict. “Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace,” Barros wrote on X. “The data is clear: Russia has intensified its drone and missile strike campaign against Ukraine since President Trump was inaugurated. Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.”
What Comes Next?
As tensions continue to rise, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed hope that peace negotiations could still be advanced through discussions with the Trump administration. Following a clash between Zelensky and Trump at the White House on February 28, Ukrainian officials announced that delegations from both countries were preparing to meet in Saudi Arabia. The talks, which are expected to focus on peace and security, represent a glimmer of hope in an otherwise dire situation. However, with Russia showing no signs of slowing its offensive, many questions remain about whether these efforts can lead to meaningful progress. In the meantime, the people of Ukraine continue to endure the devastating consequences of a conflict that shows no sign of abating anytime soon.
Conclusion: A Path Forward?
The recent escalation in Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine has cast a dark shadow over the prospects for peace in the region. As the data clearly shows, Russia’s actions are the primary impediment to resolving the conflict. Ukrainian leaders, backed by international allies, are exploring all available avenues to negotiate an end to the violence, but without a shift in Moscow’s stance, success appears elusive. The coming weeks and months will be pivotal in determining whether diplomacy can prevail or if the war will continue to intensify, further destabilizing the region and deepening the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
