A Secret Meeting and Speculation About Pope Francis’s Future

Earlier this week, two high-ranking Vatican officials made a secretive visit to Pope Francis while he was hospitalized. Initially, the Vatican claimed to have no information about the meeting, but later confirmed it, stating that the two prelates had sought the pope’s signature to proceed with gathering cardinals to approve the canonization of new saints. However, veteran Vatican watchers, including journalists and historians, have expressed skepticism about this explanation, pointing out that neither of the officials involved specializes in canonization issues. This has fueled speculation that the meeting may have had a far more significant purpose, potentially related to the pope’s health and future.

Andreas Englisch, a German journalist with nearly 40 years of experience covering the Vatican, described the situation as “very, very strange.” He noted that the timing of the meeting—coinciding with a consistory (a meeting of cardinals)—eerily echoed the circumstances under which Pope Benedict XVI announced his resignation in 2013. Englisch suggested that the story about canonization seemed like a weak cover and that "it was obvious that something was not as it seemed." The Vatican’s initial reluctance to confirm the meeting only added to the intrigue, leaving many to wonder if there was more to the story than met the eye.

The Pope’s Health and the Specter of Resignation

Pope Francis has been out of the public eye for nearly two weeks, with brief and somewhat terse medical updatesfrom the Vatican. On Wednesday evening, officials reported that the pope’s health had shown “a slight further improvement over the past 24 hours,” with blood tests indicating stabilization and a mild kidney insufficiency subsiding. A CT scan of his chest revealed that the lung inflammation from his pneumonia was progressing normally. Despite this cautious optimism, the Vatican emphasized that his prognosis remained “guarded.”

The speculation about Francis’s potential resignation has been further fueled by the historical precedent set by Pope Benedict XVI, who stepped down in 2013—the first pontiff to do so in nearly 600 years. Benedict’s resignation reshaped perceptions of the papacy, making it seem less like a lifelong calling and more like a role subject to human limitations and modern medical realities. If Francis were to resign, it would further normalize this shift, potentially dividing the church into pre-Benedict and post-Benedict eras. However, whether Francis is actually considering resignation remains unknown, even to those closest to him.

The Vatican’s Mixed Signals and the Pope’s Love of Freedom

Austen Ivereigh, the pope’s biographer, has suggested that Francis would not want his health to become a distraction from the papacy. “As I know him, he wouldn’t want a major degenerative condition to be a distraction from the papacy so it then becomes the focus of everything,” Ivereigh said. For Francis, what is essential is maintaining his freedom to serve the church as he sees fit. This could mean overcoming his current health crisis and resuming his duties, but it also leaves room for speculation about his future.

The Vatican has announced an upcoming consistory—a meeting of cardinals—to discuss canonizations, though no date has been set. Some observers interpret this as a strategic move to keep options open, should Francis decide that his health no longer allows him to lead effectively. In the past, unexpected moves by popes, such as Benedict’s visit to an Italian town tied to a medieval pope who resigned, have hinted at their retirement plans. Recently, an Italian newspaper even reported on an alleged “Operation Biden,” a supposed effort to convince Francis to step down “for the good of the church.”

Divided Opinions and the Vatican’s Response

Not everyone believes that Francis is on the verge of resigning. Many who have followed his papacy closely argue that stepping down from the hospital would generate widespread conspiracy theories, especially in the gossipy and politically charged world of the Vatican. Englisch, for one, doubts that Francis would mirror Benedict’s resignation, calling the idea “too perfect to be true.” Instead, he believes the pope is using his hospitalization to maintain his signature unpredictability, keeping the Vatican bureaucracy on edge. “He wants to send a signal,” Englisch said, though the exact meaning of that signal remains unclear.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state and one of the officials who visited Francis in the hospital, dismissed the resignation speculation as “useless chatter.” He emphasized that the focus should be on the pope’s recovery and return to the Vatican. Similarly, Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández, a close adviser to Francis, criticized those who he claimed were pressuring the pope to resign, arguing that such behavior was both counterproductive and disrespectful.

The Pope’s Stance on Resignation and the Gray Areas of Church Law

Francis has previously addressed the issue of resignation. In 2022, he revealed that he had written a letter offering his resignation should he become incapacitated, though the exact criteria for such a decision remain unclear. However, he has also expressed reluctance to see resignation become a “fashion” and has reiterated his belief that the pope’s ministry is “for life.” When asked about the possibility in Congo last year, he stated flatly, “The idea of resignation never entered my mind. For the moment, no.”

Still, the Vatican has not provided detailed guidance on how the church would function if a pope were to become incapacitated, such as slipping into a coma or losing the ability to communicate. Church law requires that a pope’s resignation be “freely and properly manifested,” but it does not specify what happens if a pope can no longer meet this standard. Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi has acknowledged that resignation could be an option if Francis were no longer able to engage directly with the world, as he has always sought to do. Meanwhile, Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, often named as a potential future pope, suggested that “everything is possible” when it comes to retirement.

As the situation unfolds, the Vatican remains shrouded in mystery, leaving observers to decipher the signals and study the shadows for clues. Whether Francis emerges from his health crisis with renewed vigor or whether this marks the beginning of a new chapter for the church remains to be seen. For now, the world waits with bated breath as the pope’s journey continues, uncertain but undeniably historic.