Putin’s War: A Tool for Control and Stability
The war has become Vladimir Putin’s most powerful tool for maintaining control over Russia and ensuring that no one dares to challenge his authority. It has been used ruthlessly to suppress dissent, forcing an entire generation of opposition voices into exile. The conflict serves as a gag order for those within the system, ensuring that even the systemic liberals—pro-Western figures who hold key positions in the economy and business world—remain silent. While many of these liberals are clearly unhappy with the situation, the ongoing war discourages them from speaking out. As long as the conflict continues, Putin can maintain his grip on power, and the country remains stable under his rule.
The Dangers of Peace and the Rising Threat of Veterans
Peace, on the other hand, poses significant dangers for Putin’s regime. It would bring home a massive army of over a million soldiers and high-ranking veterans, reintegrating them into civilian life. The question of what these veterans would do upon their return looms large. A recent incident involving Artem Zhoga, a prominent war veteran and Putin’s envoy to the Urals district, sent a warning signal. Zhoga criticized a potential minerals deal with the United States proposed by Putin, stating that the resources were part of a strategic reserve and should be preserved for the state’s interests. Notably, he did not mention the president in his remarks.
This incident was ominous for Putin. Despite extensive reshuffling at the defense ministry, not a single war veteran has been placed in a senior leadership role. Veterans are increasingly shut out of key government positions, creating a potential pool of resentment. As long as the war continues, they are forced to remain loyal. However, if peace were to come, these veterans might follow in the footsteps of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner Group, who openly criticized Putin and his regime. To prevent such a revolt, Putin cannot afford to end the war. His political survival depends on it.
The Economy: Reshaped for War
Russia’s economy has been completely restructured to serve the war effort, operating under a principle reminiscent of Stalin: "Everything for the front, everything for victory." The state apparatus now functions primarily to support the military-industrial complex. The most influential figure in Russia’s economy is Sergey Chemezov, a longtime ally of Putin from his K.G.B. days, who now heads Rostec, a state-owned military conglomerate. This illustrates the deep intertwining of political power, war, and the economy in Putin’s Russia.
Some Russian business leaders argue that the war has even benefited economically depressed regions. Defense factories that once stood idle are now operating at full capacity, fulfilling government contracts and creating jobs. In contrast to the prewar years, when wealth was concentrated in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, state funding is now flowing into economically neglected regions. The Kremlin’s adoption of military Keynesianism—using oil revenues to redirect the economy toward meeting the war’s needs—has largely succeeded.
A Delicate Balance: War, Economy, and Stability
While the war has provided short-term economic benefits, it also creates a delicate balance that Putin must maintain to ensure stability. The ongoing conflict keeps veterans and dissenters in line, silences systemic liberals, and sustains an economy that has been reshaped around the war effort. However, this balance is precarious. Peace could unleash a wave of discontent among veterans and destabilize the political and economic systems that Putin has carefully constructed.
For now, the war remains Putin’s lifeline, ensuring his control over the country and maintaining a semblance of stability. But as the conflict drags on, the pressures it creates—both within Russia’s political elite and among its military veterans—could eventually threaten the very system he has built. The interplay between war, economy, and political power in Putin’s Russia is a complex and high-stakes game, with far-reaching implications for the country’s future.
