Decrease in Cross-Border Travel Between British Columbia and the U.S.
In recent months, there has been a noticeable decline in cross-border travel from British Columbia to the United States. According to data provided by Cascade Gateway, which also monitors border wait times, the average number of cars heading southbound through the Peace Arch border crossing in February this year was approximately 3,500 per day. This represents a significant drop from the nearly 5,000 daily crossings recorded in February of the previous year. While it is early to draw definitive conclusions, experts suggest that this 30% decrease could be linked to various factors, including the looming threat of U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, a major snowstorm in early February, and a growing "buy local" movement in Canada.
The Role of Tariffs and Trade Tensions
President Trump’s ongoing threats of tariffs have cast a shadow over cross-border relations, potentially deterring Canadians from traveling to the U.S. for shopping and leisure. Laurie Trautman, a border policy researcher at Western Washington University, notes that while the precise impact of the tariffs is difficult to isolate due to other factors like weather, the data and anecdotal evidence point to a shift in behavior. "It’s early days," Trautman remarked, "but the numbers suggest around a 30-per cent decrease in southbound travel for the month of February." She also emphasized that the "buy local" campaigns encouraged by Canadian business leaders and politicians might be influencing travelers’ decisions, further reducing cross-border trips.
Economic and Cultural Implications of Tariffs
The tariffs themselves are part of a broader trade strategy by the Trump administration, with two separate sets of tariffs affecting Canada. The first, a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico related to the fentanyl crisis, is set to take effect on March 4. The second, a reciprocal tariff on all U.S. trading partners, is scheduled for April 2. Despite these impending measures, experts warn that the damage to cross-border relations may already be done. "People are angry and justifiably so," Trautman said, adding that even if the tariffs are delayed or revoked, the lingering frustration among Canadians could persist. Additionally, comments made by Trump, such as suggesting Canada could become the 51st state, have been perceived as offensive, further straining relations.
The Canadian Dollar’s Impact on Cross-Border Travel
Another critical factor influencing cross-border travel is the value of the Canadian dollar. Trautman explained that fluctuations in the Canadian dollar significantly impact travel patterns. When the Canadian dollar is weaker, as it has been in recent months, traveling to the U.S. becomes more expensive for Canadians. Conversely, it becomes cheaper for Americans to visit Canada. This dynamic is particularly relevant in regions like British Columbia, where a large portion of cross-border travel is discretionary, such as shopping trips or dining out. While the weaker dollar may encourage American tourists to visit Canada, it simultaneously discourages Canadians from making the trip south of the border.
Anecdotal Evidence and Community Response
While the data provides a broad overview of the situation, anecdotal evidence from communities on both sides of the border offers additional insights. Guy Occhiogrosso, president and CEO of the Bellingham Regional Chamber of Commerce, noted that while there is no concrete data linking Trump’s tariff threats to a decline in cross-border shopping, there are noticeable changes. "If we listen to the number of Canadians that say, ‘we’re not shopping in the U.S.’ or, ‘we’re stopping trips,’ it certainly would indicate that there has been and is and will be a decline," Occhiogrosso said. He also observed fewer British Columbia license plates in Bellingham parking lots, though he acknowledged that factors like snowfall and the weaker Canadian dollar might also be contributing to this trend.
Conclusion: The Impact of Trade Tensions on Cross-Border Relations
The decline in cross-border travel from British Columbia to the U.S. reflects the multifaceted impact of trade tensions, economic factors, and cultural sensitivities. While the exact causes of the drop in travel are complex and varied, the looming threat of tariffs has undoubtedly played a role in shaping public sentiment and behavior. As the situation continues to evolve, it remains to be seen whether cross-border relations will normalize or if the current trends will persist. For now, communities on both sides of the border are grappling with the economic and cultural implications of these changes, emphasizing the need for continued dialogue and cooperation to mitigate the negative effects of trade disputes.
