Myanmar’s Path to 2025/2026 Elections Amidst Ongoing Turmoil

Introduction to the 2025/2026 Election Announcement

In a significant development, Myanmar’s military government has officially announced plans to hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026. This announcement, made by the junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, marks the first specific timeframe provided for the long-promised polls. The country has been embroiled in chaos since early 2021, when the military ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. This coup triggered widespread protests and an armed rebellion, plunging the nation into a state of constant conflict.

The Context of Myanmar’s Ongoing Conflict

Myanmar has been in a state of turmoil since the military seized power in February 2021. The ousted leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who was a symbol of democracy in the country, was detained along with other prominent political figures. The military crackdown on dissent led to a massive protest movement that eventually transformed into an armed resistance across various parts of the country. The junta has faced significant opposition from a coalition of anti-military groups, including ethnic armed organizations and civilian resistance forces. Despite the challenges, the military leadership has consistently pledged to hold elections, though the credibility of such polls has been widely questioned.

Skepticism Surrounding the Junta’s Election Promise

Critics have expressed strong doubts about the legitimacy of the proposed elections. Many view the polls as a tactic by the military to maintain power indirectly, possibly through proxy political parties. The junta has banned dozens of political parties, restricting the political landscape and limiting opportunities for genuine opposition. Additionally, the military has lost control over large swaths of the country, raising concerns about the feasibility of conducting free and fair elections in such a fractured environment.

The Junta’s Claims of a Free and Fair Election

During a visit to Belarus, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing reiterated his commitment to holding a "free and fair election soon." He also revealed that 53 political parties had already submitted their candidate lists to participate in the poll. However, these claims have been met with skepticism, as the junta has consistently restricted political freedoms and cracked down on dissent. The selective inclusion of political parties and the exclusion of major opposition groups have further fueled doubts about the sincerity of the military’s intentions.

The Current Security and Political Challenges

Myanmar’s ongoing conflict has created a highly unstable environment, with the military facing resistance from various anti-junta groups. The junta’s control over the country is tenuous at best, with many regions effectively governed by local resistance forces. The security situation remains precarious, and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with millions displaced and in need of aid. Against this backdrop, the announcement of elections raises questions about how the polls will be conducted and whether they can be considered legitimate.

The Role of Opposition and the Future of Myanmar

The opposition movement, which includes both armed groups and civilian-led resistance, has vowed to boycott the elections, arguing that they are a sham designed to legitimize military rule. The international community has also expressed concerns about the lack of transparency and fairness in the electoral process. As Myanmar approaches the proposed election date, the country’s future remains uncertain. The polls, whether held in December 2025 or January 2026, are unlikely to resolve the deep-seated political and social divides that have plagued the nation for years.