1. The Rise of the Liberal Party Under Mark Carney
The Liberal Party of Canada has experienced a significant resurgence in popularity, thanks in large part to the leadership of newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney. According to the latest Ipsos polling, conducted exclusively for Global News, the Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives, securing 42% of decided voter support compared to the Conservatives’ 36%. This seven-point lead represents a stark shift in the political landscape, as the Liberals had previously trailed the Conservatives in Ipsos polling since 2021. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 Canadians between March 14 and 17, 2025, highlights a growing momentum for the Liberals, placing them firmly in "majority government territory," according to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. This surge in support comes just weeks after Carney officially took the reins as prime minister on March 14, following Justin Trudeau’s resignation amid declining popularity.
The polling data suggests that Carney’s arrival has breathed new life into the Liberal Party, with progressives increasingly turning to him as a viable alternative to the New Democratic Party (NDP) and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. This shift is particularly notable among young voters, with the Liberals regaining support among 18- to 34-year-olds—a demographic that had moved away from the party in recent years.
2. The Decline of the NDP and Other Parties
While the Liberals are gaining ground, the NDP has seen its support drop by two points to 10% of decided voters. This decline underscores the challenges faced by Singh and his party in presenting themselves as a credible alternative to the Liberals. As Bricker noted, "History is not going to be kind to the behaviour of the New Democrats over the space of this last term of the Trudeau administration." The NDP’s inability to capitalize on progressive voters has allowed Carney and the Liberals to fill the void, particularly as the Liberal leader’s meteoric rise continues to dominate the political narrative.
The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, remains steady at 6%, while the Green Party, under Elizabeth May, has fallen by two points to 2%. The People’s Party, led by Maxime Bernier, remains unchanged at 3%, and support for other parties has inched up by one point to 2%. These numbers paint a clear picture of a fragmented opposition, with the Liberals emerging as the dominant force in Canadian politics.
3. The Liberal Party’s Broadening Appeal
The Ipsos poll reveals a significant shift in voter demographics, with the Liberal Party now performing well among key segments of the population. Young voters aged 18 to 34, who had distanced themselves from the Liberals in previous polls, are once again gravitating toward the party. This reversal is a testament to Carney’s ability to reconnect with a demographic that is often critical to electoral success.
In addition to younger voters, the Liberals are also gaining support among Canadians aged 55 and older, a group that has historically leaned Conservative. This broadening appeal is further reflected in the reemergence of a gender gap in voting preferences, with women now more likely to support the Liberal Party than men. Such shifts in voter behavior have been unprecedented in recent Canadian politics, with Bricker describing the magnitude of the change as "enormous."
Regionally, the Liberals are leading in Ontario and Quebec, two crucial battlegrounds in any federal election. In Quebec, the Liberals enjoy a 15-point lead over the Bloc Québécois, a margin that underscores the declining relevance of the latter in the current political climate. The Liberals are also performing strongly in British Columbia, further solidifying their position as the party to watch in the coming weeks.
4. The Trade War and Its Impact on Canadian Politics
The timing of the Liberal Party’s resurgence coincides with a significant escalation in trade tensions between Canada and the United States. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, while Canada has retaliated with counter-tariffs on $30 billion worth of American products. The situation remains fluid, with additional tariffs on steel and aluminum already in effect and global "reciprocal" tariffs set to kick in on April 2.
Prime Minister Carney has been vocal in his criticism of these tariffs, characterizing them as "unjustified" and warning of the potential for "dark days" ahead for the Canadian economy. The ongoing trade war has added a layer of urgency to the political landscape, with voters increasingly looking for leadership capable of navigating these uncertain times. The Liberal Party’s strong showing in the polls suggests that Canadians are placing their trust in Carney to steer the nation through this economic storm.
5. The Conservative Party’s Struggles
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has seen its support drop significantly, from a high of 45-46% in previous polls to 35-36% in the latest survey. This decline is particularly notable given that the Conservatives had consistently led in the polls since 2021. The loss of momentum is attributed, in part, to the perception among voters that the Liberals, under Carney’s leadership, now represent a viable and attractive alternative to the status quo.
Bricker noted that many Canadians who had previously considered voting Conservative as a means of effecting change are now turning to the Liberals, drawn by the party’s renewed energy and direction. This shift highlights the challenges facing Poilievre and his team, as they work to regain their footing in a rapidly evolving political environment.
6. The Road Ahead
As the Liberal Party continues to build momentum, the next federal election is widely expected to be called in the coming weeks. The Liberals’ current standing in the polls, combined with their broadening appeal across demographics and regions, suggests that they are well-positioned to secure a majority government. However, the road ahead will not be without challenges, particularly as the trade war with the U.S. continues to loom large over the Canadian economy.
For his part, Carney has wasted no time in asserting his leadership, both domestically and on the international stage. His ability to navigate the complexities of the trade war while maintaining voter confidence will be critical in the weeks and months to come. As the political landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear: Mark Carney’s leadership has ushered in a new era of possibility for the Liberal Party, and Canadians are taking notice.
