Federal Liberals Surge Ahead of Conservatives in Latest Poll

A Shift in Political Momentum

For the first time since 2021, the federal Liberal Party has overtaken the Conservatives in public support, according to a recent poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for Global News. The survey, conducted between February 21 and 24, 2025, reveals that if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would secure 38% of decided voter support, edging out the Conservatives at 36%. This shift marks a significant turnaround for the Liberals, who trailed the Conservatives by a substantial 26-point margin just six weeks earlier.

The poll, which sampled 1,000 voting-age Canadians, indicates a 10-point increase in Liberal support since Ipsos’ previous poll earlier this month. While the results fall within a 3.8 percentage point margin of error, they reflect a broader trend of the Liberals closing the gap with the Conservatives over the past seven weeks. This period has been marked by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and growing concerns over damaging U.S. tariffs set to take effect soon.

The Changing Political Landscape

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have seen a five-point drop in support among decided voters, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois also experiencing declines, dropping to 12% and 6%, respectively. According to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, two key factors are driving this shift. First, the Liberal Party’s leadership race has sparked public interest, as Canadians await the announcement of a new leader to replace Trudeau. Second, the looming U.S. tariffs have shifted the political discourse, focusing attention on immediate economic challenges rather than past Liberal policies.

Bricker emphasizes that the Liberal leadership race and the threat of U.S. tariffs have redirected public attention to the present, offering the Liberals an opportunity to regain momentum. The Liberals’ improving fortunes are particularly evident in Central Canada, with significant gains in Quebec and Ontario, as well as a notable increase in support in Atlantic Canada. Conversely, the Conservatives maintain strong support in Western Canada, though their national numbers have declined.

Regional Shifts and Political Messaging

The Conservatives have long framed the upcoming federal election as a referendum on the carbon price, a policy they have vehemently opposed. However, two prominent Liberal leadership contenders, Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, have distanced themselves from the consumer carbon price, potentially altering the political narrative. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian exports has emerged as a major economic concern, impacting both individual workers and the broader economy.

In response to these challenges, the Conservatives have attempted to rebrand their message around a "Canada First" agenda. However, Bricker warns that the instability caused by the tariff threat and the renewed focus on the Liberals due to their leadership race have made it more difficult for the Conservatives to communicate their message effectively. To counter the Liberals’ resurgence, the Conservatives will need to find ways to cut through the noise and reassert their message to voters.

Public Urgency for an Election

The looming U.S. tariffs have also intensified calls for an immediate federal election. A staggering 86% of Canadians believe an election should be held promptly to ensure the country has a stable government with a strong mandate to address the tariff threat. With the tariffs set to take effect on March 4, the urgency for decisive leadership has never been greater. The poll underscores the growing pressure on Canadian politicians to act swiftly in the face of external economic pressures.

Looking Ahead

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the Liberals’ resurgence and the Conservatives’ decline highlight the volatile nature of Canadian politics in 2025. With the leadership race underway and the U.S. tariff threat looming, the next federal election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent history. Whether the Liberals can sustain their momentum or the Conservatives can regain their footing remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Canadians are eager for a government capable of navigating the challenges ahead.