Israel Proposes Temporary Cease-Fire Extension in Gaza
Israel has announced a proposal to extend a temporary cease-fire in Gaza during the Ramadan and Passover holidays, as the initial phase of the truce was set to expire. This move, revealed by the prime minister’s office late on Saturday, appears to be an attempt by the Israeli government to clarify its negotiating position as both Israel and Hamas struggle to transition from the first phase of the cease-fire to a second, more comprehensive phase as originally envisioned in the agreement.
The announcement followed a cabinet meeting led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, attended by Israel’s defense minister, senior defense officials, and a negotiating team. Despite these efforts, significant uncertainty remains about the path forward in Gaza. Earlier on Saturday, a Hamas spokesman told Al-Araby TV that the militant group had rejected Israel’s framework for extending the truce, as reported by Reuters.
Both Israel and Hamas have compelling reasons to avoid resuming hostilities at this time. Hamas seeks to allow its forces to recover and regroup, while Israel aims to secure the release of the remaining hostages held in Gaza. However, the prospect of reaching a comprehensive agreement seems distant, with Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst and current senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noting that Hamas is unlikely to accept Israel’s proposal without further negotiations.
Israel’s Proposal and Hamas’s Response
Under Israel’s proposed framework, which the government attributes to U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, half of the remaining hostages in Gaza would be released to Israel on the first day of the agreement. If a permanent truce is reached by the end of the temporary extension, the rest of the hostages would then be returned. The timeline for this proposal aligns with the conclusion of Ramadan at the end of March and the end of Passover in April, providing approximately seven weeks for Israel and Hamas to negotiate a broader agreement.
Hamas, however, has made it clear that it will not return all hostages without ironclad guarantees that Israel will withdraw its forces and formally declare an end to the war. As Miller pointed out, “Hamas is not going to return all of the hostages until it has ironclad guarantees that the Israelis will withdraw their forces and formally declare and abide by an end of the war.” He added, “No one is going to give Hamas that guarantee.” This stalemate highlights the deep mistrust and competing demands that continue to hinder progress in the negotiations.
The Fragile State of Negotiations
The original agreement, finalized in the last days of the Biden administration, included a six-week truce that ended on March 1. The terms of the deal were designed to facilitate negotiations for a permanent end to the war, including the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. However, the negotiations that were supposed to be completed by this weekend have yet to begin in earnest, despite Egyptian-mediated discussions in Cairo involving officials from both sides.
Israel and Hamas have accused each other of violating the terms of the agreement. Over the past weekend, Israel delayed the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in response to Hamas’s public parades of Israeli hostages before handing them over. This move underscored the tensions and mistrust that continue to plague the process.
The Broader Implications of the Conflict
Prime Minister Netanyahu has emphasized that Israel is prepared to resume fighting if Hamas refuses to disarm voluntarily. At the same time, Hamas has avoided direct calls for a resumption of hostilities but has made it clear that it will not surrender. This precarious balance reflects the broader complexities of the conflict, where both sides are attempting to navigate a path forward while protecting their respective interests.
The involvement of international actors, such as the U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, highlights the global stakes of the situation. The success of the proposed extension and the broader negotiations will depend on the ability of both sides to find common ground and make concessions, even as they face intense internal and external pressures.
The Hostage Exchange and Its Challenges
The hostage exchange remains one of the most contentious issues in the negotiations. Israel has made the release of its citizens a top priority, while Hamas sees the hostages as a bargaining chip to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners and other concessions. The proposed framework, which links the release of hostages to the achievement of a permanent truce, reflects Israel’s effort to maintain leverage in the negotiations.
However, as Miller noted, the proposal allows Israel to secure the return of its hostages without making reciprocal commitments to Hamas. This imbalance has likely contributed to Hamas’s reluctance to accept the terms of the agreement. Without a more equitable framework, it is unlikely that Hamas will agree to a deal that does not address its core demands.
The Uncertain Future of the Cease-Fire
As the situation in Gaza remains tense, the future of the cease-fire hangs in the balance. Both sides have reasons to avoid another round of fighting, but the lack of progress in the negotiations suggests that a comprehensive agreement is still far from reach. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Israel and Hamas can find a way forward or if the conflict will once again escalate into violence.
For now, the focus remains on the humanitarian and political dimensions of the truce. The international community, particularly through the efforts of mediators like Egypt and the United States, will play a crucial role in helping the two sides navigate this fragile period. Whether the proposed extension will lead to a lasting resolution or simply delay the inevitable remains to be seen.
