The Rise of the Far Right in Germany: Understanding the Surprising Success of the AfD
A Historic Shift in German Politics
The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) made history in the recent federal elections by securing second place, more than doubling its vote share compared to four years ago. This marks the strongest performance by a far-right party in Germany since World War II. The AfD’s success has raised eyebrows, given Germany’s tumultuous history with right-wing extremism. The rise of the AfD in a country that has long grappled with the lessons of its past begs the question: How did this happen? Many point to immigration as a key factor, particularly the influx of Muslim refugees from Syria and other Middle Eastern countries during the mid-2010s. However, new research reveals another critical factor: the demographic and economic decline of certain regions, particularly in the former East Germany.
The Role of Left-Behind Regions
The AfD’s strongest performance came in the former East Germany, where young people have been leaving rural and industrial areas in search of better opportunities in cities. This exodus has created a “demographic doom loop”: a self-reinforcing cycle of shrinking and aging populations, deteriorating public services, and sluggish economic growth. These conditions have become fertile ground for the AfD’s anti-immigration and populist rhetoric. The party’s rise has further exacerbated the problem by creating pressure to reduce immigration, which only worsens the challenges of an aging and shrinking population.
The Roots of Decline in Eastern Germany
The roots of this decline can be traced back to the years following German reunification in 1990. Many residents of eastern Germany left for cities and wealthier western regions in search of better opportunities. The promises of a post-unification “peace dividend” never materialized, leaving many feeling abandoned. Thiamo Fetzer, an economics professor who has studied the region, notes that eastern Germany experienced a form of “shock therapy” after reunification, leading to the departure of younger, more educated individuals. Those who stayed behind were disproportionately older and more likely to support the AfD. This demographic sorting effect has had a profound impact on the political landscape.
The Doom Loop and Its Implications
The decline in quality of life in these left-behind regions has led to widespread frustration. Residents often blame the national government and mainstream political parties for their struggles, further fueling support for the far right. Hans Lueders, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, explains that mainstream parties have largely disengaged from these regions, campaigning less and recruiting fewer candidates. This disconnection has allowed far-right parties like the AfD to position themselves as champions of ordinary people against an out-of-touch elite. The result is a self-perpetuating cycle: the decline of left-behind regions leads to greater support for far-right parties, whose policies exacerbate the very problems they claim to solve.
Immigration: A Solution or a Scapegoat?
The AfD hasexplicitly blamed immigrants for Germany’s challenges, calling for stricter limits on immigration and the repatriation of migrants. However, experts argue that immigration is one of the few viable solutions to the growing issues of aging and shrinking populations, not just in Germany but across the developed world. The regions most opposed to immigration—those experiencing demographic decline—are precisely the ones that would benefit most from an influx of younger workers. These workers could help alleviate the pressures on healthcare, childcare, and other essential services. Instead, the rise of the AfD and similar far-right parties threatens to create a self-perpetuating cycle of decline.
A Global Phenomenon
The trends driving the AfD’s success in Germany are not unique to the country. Across much of the developed world, peripheral regions are experiencing similar patterns of decline, as working-age people leave in search of better opportunities. This has fueled the rise of far-right parties in Europe, the United States, and other advanced economies. Rafaela Dancygier, a professor of political science at Princeton University, notes that this “doom loop” is a global phenomenon, with left-behind regions increasingly turning to populist and anti-immigration parties. The consequences are far-reaching, threatening not only the stability of these regions but also the broader social and economic fabric of entire nations.
