The Fragile Ceasefire: Hopes for Peace in Israel-Hamas Conflict Dwindle
When Israel and Hamas agreed to a six-week ceasefire in January, there was cautious optimism that this temporary truce might pave the way for a more stable and enduring peace. However, as the deadline for the ceasefire looms closer, those hopes are rapidly fading. Both sides have accused each other of violating the terms of the agreement, which included the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Tensions escalated over the weekend when Israel delayed the release of several hundred prisoners, citing the humiliating manner in which Hamas had paraded hostages before handing them over. With only days left before the ceasefire expires on March 1, negotiations for an extension have yet to begin in earnest. Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for the Trump administration, has announced plans to return to the region to push for a new truce, but the prospects for a long-term agreement appear bleak. Both Israel and Hamas have set preconditions that make a permanent resolution difficult. Israeli leaders insist that they will only end the war if Hamas is stripped of its military and political power in Gaza, while Hamas has shown little willingness to disarm, at least publicly. As the situation stands, the likelihood of avoiding a return to fighting seems increasingly remote.
The Origins of the Crisis: A Fragile Agreement and Missed Opportunities
The ceasefire agreement was reached in the final days of the Biden administration and was intended to provide a six-week window for both sides to exchange hostages and prisoners. Under the deal, roughly 1,500 Palestinian prisoners were to be released from Israeli jails in exchange for 33 hostages captured by Hamas and its allies during the October 2023 raid that sparked the war. The agreement also called for negotiations on a permanent truce, which would have gone into effect on March 2. These negotiations were expected to address key issues, including the governance of postwar Gaza and the release of approximately 60 additional hostages. While the prisoner exchanges have largely proceeded as planned, despite some disruptions, the negotiations for a second phase have stalled. According to the terms of the agreement, the ceasefire can only be formally extended if both sides agree to end the war. However, the vastly different visions of a postwar Gaza held by Israel and Hamas have made it impossible to reach such an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to restart talks, citing Hamas’s continued military presence in Gaza. As a result, the ceasefire now teeters on the brink of collapse, with no clear path forward.
The Question of Intent: Do Israel and Hamas Want to Avoid War?
The question of whether Israel and Hamas genuinely wish to avoid a resumption of hostilities is a complex one. Hamas, weakened and isolated, has avoided explicitly calling for a return to fighting. However, its refusal to disarm has made war more likely. On the other hand, Netanyahu has made his position crystal clear: Israel is prepared to resume fighting if Hamas does not voluntarily disarm. In a recent speech to soldiers, Netanyahu reiterated his stance that he is only open to negotiations on the terms of Hamas’s surrender. This hardline approach has put him at odds with some within his own government, as well as with the Israeli public. Many Israelis are urging Netanyahu to agree to an extended truce, even if it means allowing Hamas to remain in power, in order to secure the release of the remaining hostages. However, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition allies view the defeat of Hamas as a higher national priority and are pressing him to restart the conflict. The divisions within Israel over how to proceed highlight the complexity of the situation and the daunting challenges facing any attempt at a lasting peace.
Israel’s military preparations: A New Offensive Looms
Despite the ongoing diplomatic efforts, Israel appears to be actively preparing for a potential new offensive in Gaza. According to three defense officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Israeli military has made extensive preparations for a new campaign, which would be more intense than previous operations. The planned operations would target Hamas officials accused of diverting aid supplies meant for civilians, as well as buildings and infrastructure used by the Hamas-run civilian government. While the plan has yet to be approved by the Israeli cabinet, two of the officials expressed confidence that only President Trump could persuade Netanyahu to avoid renewed conflict. These preparations underscore the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the very real possibility of a return to violence. Should the ceasefire collapse, the humanitarian consequences for the civilian population in Gaza could be severe, with widespread destruction and loss of life expected to follow. The international community is increasingly concerned about the potential for a new wave of fighting, but its ability to influence the situation remains limited.
President Trump’s Role: A Mixed Message
President Trump’s role in the conflict has been inconsistent, with his administration sending mixed signals in recent weeks. While Trump has called for sustained peace, he has also advocated for renewed war and even the expulsion of Gaza’s two million residents. The clearest indication of his administration’s current stance came from Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, who announced plans to return to the region to push for a temporary extension of the ceasefire. Witkoff expressed optimism about the possibility of achieving a longer agreement, stating that he would spend five days touring Egypt, Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to build momentum for an extension. However, his efforts face significant challenges, not least the deep-seated distrust between Israel and Hamas. The administration’s mixed messaging has only added to the uncertainty surrounding the situation, with neither side entirely sure of what to expect from the United States. Despite the challenges, the international community remains hopeful that Trump’s involvement could help to prevent a return to violence, at least in the short term. Yet, the long-term prospects for peace remain as uncertain as ever.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Possible Scenarios
Looking ahead, there are several potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. First, if the ceasefire is not extended, fighting is not guaranteed to resume immediately. The original agreement allows for the continued cessation of hostilities as long as both sides are engaged in negotiations over a permanent ceasefire. This leaves some room for manoeuvre, as the truce could technically continue even if talks are ongoing but far from a resolution. However, the absence of further hostage-for-prisoner exchanges after March 1 removes a key incentive for both sides to maintain the ceasefire. Without these swaps, the motivation to continue the truce diminishes, making it more vulnerable to collapse. A particular flashpoint is expected after March 8, when Israel is supposed to withdraw its forces from the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Netanyahu has already stated that Israel will not pull back from this area, raising concerns that Hamas may respond by firing rockets at Israel, providing a pretext for retaliation. The situation remains highly volatile, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the ceasefire can be extended or if the conflict will once again spiral into violence. The international community can only watch and hope that both sides find a way to avoid a return to war and work towards a lasting peace.
