Ethiopia’s Tigray Region on the Brink of Crisis: A Call for Federal Intervention

Introduction

Ethiopia’s Tigray region is teetering on the edge of chaos as a faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has seized control of two major towns, Adigrat and Adi-Gudem, leaving several people injured. The interim government of Tigray has appealed to the federal government to step in to prevent the region from slipping back into civil war. The TPLF, which fought a brutal two-year war against federal forces that ended with a peace agreement in November 2022, appears to be fracturing, with internal conflicts escalating tensions.

The Seizure of Adigrat and Adi-Gudem

The recent events began on Tuesday when a faction of the TPLF, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, took control of Adigrat, the second-largest town in Tigray, and appointed a new administrator, displacing the official loyal to the interim government. The situation deteriorated further on Wednesday night when the same faction seized Adi-Gudem, a town near the regional capital, Mekele. The takeover in Adi-Gudem resulted in injuries as forces attempted to occupy a government building. These actions have heightened fears of a return to the violent conflict that plagued the region from November 2020 to November 2022, when a peace agreement was signed, leading to the establishment of a TPLF-led interim government.

The Aftermath of the Peace Agreement

The peace agreement, signed in Pretoria, brought an end to a devastating war that caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, displaced millions, and pushed many to the brink of famine in Africa’s second-most populous country. However, the TPLF has since splintered, with internal divisions threatening the fragile peace. In October, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael expelled Getachew Reda, the head of the interim government, and four members of his cabinet from the party. Retaliating, Reda, who was the chief negotiator of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, temporarily suspended four senior military commanders believed to be aligned with Gebremichael’s faction.

The Escalating Tensions and Fears of Crisis

The recent seizures and internal conflicts within the TPLF have raised concerns that the region may be on the brink of another crisis. The Tigray Communication Affairs Bureau, part of the interim government, issued a statement on Wednesday warning of the deteriorating situation. Getachew Reda has described the TPLF’s actions as a “potential coup attempt” and has called on the international community, which played a crucial role in guaranteeing the Pretoria Peace Agreement, to closely monitor the escalating tensions.

The TPLF’s Perspective

Amanuel Assefa, the deputy chairman of the TPLF, has defended the recent actions, stating that they are related to law enforcement and not a violation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Assefa emphasized that the TPLF and Tigray forces are the rightful owners of the agreement and have no reason to engage in actions that would undermine it.

The Call for Federal Intervention

Given the escalating tensions and the potential for further conflict, the interim government has urged the Ethiopian federal government to intervene to restore stability in the region. The international community, particularly the guarantors of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, has been called upon to take note of the deteriorating situation and its far-reaching implications. As the region teeters on the edge of another crisis, swift action is needed to prevent a return to the violence and instability that have already caused immense suffering in Tigray.