Doug Ford’s Reelection: A Campaign Focused on Strength and Trade

Doug Ford, the Conservative Premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, secured a decisive victory in the provincial election held on Thursday. The election, which was called a year ahead of schedule, was characterized by an unusual focus: not on traditional domestic issues like healthcare or education, but on who could best stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump in a potential trade war. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation projected Ford’s win just 10 minutes after polls closed, signaling a clear mandate for the incumbent leader. Ford, who is 60, centered his campaign on projecting strength and resilience, particularly in the face of Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian exports. He vowed to retaliate against these tariffs, even going so far as to threaten cutting off energy supplies to the U.S. from Ontario. This bold stance resonated with voters, many of whom are deeply concerned about the economic implications of a trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner.

Ontario’s Economic Stake in the Trade Dispute

Ontario, home to 16 million people—approximately 40% of Canada’s population—is the economic powerhouse of the country. The province is a hub for key industries such as automotive manufacturing, technology, and energy production. The potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would have devastating consequences for Ontario, including significant job losses and economic instability. Ford repeatedly emphasized that the tariffs could cost the province up to 500,000 jobs, particularly in the automotive sector, where production is deeply intertwined with the U.S. market. Car parts often cross the border multiple times during assembly, making Ontario’s economy highly vulnerable to disruptions in U.S.-Canada trade relations. Ford’s campaign successfully capitalized on these fears, positioning himself as the leader best equipped to protect Ontario’s economic interests.

A Campaign Marked by Consensus and Limited Drama

Despite the high stakes, the election campaign was surprisingly low-key, with many observers describing it as “uninteresting” compared to previous contests. Much of this can be attributed to the fact that the three main candidates—Doug Ford of the Progressive Conservative Party, Bonnie Crombie of the Liberal Party, and Marit Stiles of the New Democratic Party (NDP)—tended to agree on many of the major issues. All three parties acknowledged the need to increase the number of family doctors, expand transit networks, and make housing more affordable. This consensus on policy made it difficult for voters to distinguish between the parties based on their platforms. Political scientists noted that this lack of differentiation contributed to a sense of predictability and reduced the drama often associated with elections. As a result, the campaign largely focused on leadership qualities and who could best represent Ontario’s interests in the face of external threats like U.S. tariffs.

Ford’s Snap Election Strategy

Ford’s decision to call a snap election, more than a year before the scheduled date in June 2026, was a calculated move to strengthen his position ahead of potential trade disputes. He argued that his government needed a “strong mandate” from voters to effectively challenge Trump’s tariffs and negotiate on behalf of Ontario. However, his opponents questioned the timing of the election, arguing that it was unnecessary since the federal government, rather than the province, would be the primary negotiator with the U.S. administration. Critics also pointed out that the Ontario government’s ability to independently retaliate against U.S. tariffs was limited, raising concerns that the election was more about political maneuvering than addressing the actual challenges posed by the trade dispute.

The Trump Factor and Canada-U.S. Relations

The looming threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports was a central theme throughout the campaign. Trump had threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods unless Canada agreed to strengthen its border security. These tensions were temporarily eased when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau negotiated a 30-day reprieve, but the situation remains unresolved. Ford used this uncertainty to bolster his campaign, framing himself as a strong leader who would stand up to Trump and defend Canadian sovereignty. In a campaign ad, Ford even went so far as to denounce Trump’s hypothetical threats to annex Canada, declaring, “Canada will never be the 51st state. Canada is not for sale.” This rhetoric resonated with voters who were eager for a leader who could navigate the complex and often contentious relationship with the U.S.

Doug Ford’s Political Legacy and Future Challenges

Doug Ford’s victory marks the continuation of his tenure as Premier, which began in 2018 when he ended 15 years of Liberal Party rule. Ford’s political career has been marked by his anti-establishment image and his ability to connect with voters who feel disconnected from traditional politics. As the son of a businessman and a former provincial politician, Ford has leveraged his outsider status to build a political brand centered on reducing taxes and promoting industrial development. However, his leadership has not been without controversy. Critics have raised concerns about his close ties to developers and his government’s plan to open up protected areas like the Greenbelt for development, which is currently under investigation. Despite these challenges, Ford’s reelection suggests that his core message—of strength, resilience, and a commitment to Ontario’s economic interests—has struck a chord with voters. As he begins his new term, Ford will face the daunting task of navigating the province through the uncertain waters of U.S.-Canada trade relations while addressing the pressing domestic issues that were often overshadowed during the campaign.