Soybean futures posted gains on Friday as prices advanced across nearby contracts, with May soybeans climbing 17 and a half cents for the week and November contracts rising 13 and a quarter cents. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price increased 9 and a quarter cents to reach $10.94, reflecting continued momentum in the soybean market. Friday’s trading session saw soybean futures gain between 6 to 10 cents in the nearby contracts.
Meanwhile, the soybean complex showed mixed performance, with soymeal futures finishing steady to $2.10 lower in front months despite a weekly gain of $6.70 for May contracts. Soy oil futures demonstrated strength, posting gains of up to 9 points in nearby contracts, with May soy oil rallying an impressive 255 points throughout the week.
Soybean Market Shows Strength Above Last Year’s Levels
The average close for November soybean futures reached $11.09 in February, marking a significant increase of 55 cents compared to last year’s spring soybean crop insurance price. This price appreciation reflects improved market fundamentals and shifting supply-demand dynamics in the agricultural commodities sector.
According to CFTC data released on Friday, managed money traders continued building bullish positions in soybeans. The group added 20,591 contracts to their net long position as of February 24, bringing their total net long position to 184,202 contracts. This increasing speculative interest demonstrates growing confidence in soybean price prospects among institutional investors.
Export Commitments Trail Historical Pace
However, export performance remains a concern for the soybean market. USDA’s Export Sales report for the week of February 19 revealed total soybean export commitments of 35.65 million metric tons, representing a decline of 19 percent from the same period last year. The current commitment level stands at 83 percent of USDA’s export estimate, lagging behind the typical 91 percent average pace for this time of year.
Additionally, market participants are anticipating USDA’s Fats and Oils report scheduled for Monday release. Traders are expecting January soybean crush to total 226.3 million bushels, a key indicator of domestic demand for soybeans through processing facilities. This data will provide insights into how industrial demand is supporting soybean prices alongside export activity.
Brazilian Crop Estimates Show Diverging Views
In contrast, crop forecasts for Brazil’s soybean harvest continue to evolve as analysts assess weather impacts and production potential. Brazil’s Safras and Mercado lowered its Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 177.72 million metric tons, a reduction of 1.36 million metric tons from its previous forecast. The downward revision suggests potential production challenges in the world’s largest soybean exporter.
Conversely, Rabobank released a more optimistic outlook, estimating Brazil’s soybean crop at 181 million metric tons, an increase of 2 million metric tons from their prior projection. These diverging estimates highlight uncertainty around South American production, which significantly influences global soybean supply expectations and price volatility.
Friday’s closing prices reflected the week’s positive momentum, with March 2026 soybeans settling at $11.57 and a quarter, up 9 and a half cents. May contracts closed at $11.70 and three-quarters, gaining 7 and a quarter cents, while July soybeans finished at $11.82 and three-quarters, up 6 and a half cents for the session.
Market participants will closely monitor Monday’s USDA Fats and Oils report for confirmation of crush demand expectations. Further updates on Brazilian harvest progress and U.S. export sales performance will likely drive price direction in coming weeks as planting season approaches.
