Coffee prices in the United States have surged dramatically, with the average cost reaching $9.37 per pound in January 2026, marking a 33% increase from the previous year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This spike has pushed coffee prices to their highest levels since the 1980s, when federal agencies first began tracking the commodity systematically.
The escalation comes despite a global trend moving in the opposite direction. International coffee prices have actually declined to $3.64 per pound in January, creating a significant disconnect between domestic and worldwide markets. Tariff policies implemented during the Trump administration are largely responsible for this growing gap between US and global pricing.
Trump Tariffs Drive Coffee Price Surge
Former President Donald Trump’s trade policies targeted major coffee-producing nations that supply the majority of America’s coffee. His Liberation Day tariffs included a 46% levy on Vietnamese imports and 10% tariffs on both Brazil and Colombia, three countries that collectively account for more than 60% of the US coffee supply, according to trade data.
Additionally, Trump attempted to impose a 40% tariff specifically on Brazilian food and beverage imports in July. While he ultimately reversed this decision in November, the impact continues to reverberate through coffee markets months later due to how commodity pricing works in practice.
Why Prices Remain High Despite Tariff Rollback
Coffee importers typically secure prices several months in advance through forward contracts. As such, Trump’s November rollback of certain tariffs on major coffee producers has not yet translated into consumer relief. The lag between policy changes and retail price adjustments means Americans are still paying for earlier tariff implementations.
Meanwhile, global coffee markets are experiencing favorable conditions that have kept international prices subdued. A positive supply outlook for the coming year, combined with easing production shortfalls from previous seasons, has created downward pressure on worldwide coffee prices.
Coffee Shops Pass Costs to Consumers
In contrast to global trends, American coffee retailers began raising prices following the tariff announcements. Major chains and independent coffee shops alike have adjusted their pricing structures to account for increased import costs. However, consumer demand has remained resilient despite the price increases.
Leading coffee industry stocks have demonstrated strong performance throughout 2026, suggesting that higher prices have not significantly dampened consumer appetite. Starbucks shares have risen 14% year to date, while Keurig Dr. Pepper has gained 5% during the same period, according to market data.
Market Implications and Consumer Behavior
The willingness of consumers to absorb higher coffee prices may discourage retailers from reducing costs even as tariff impacts fade. This consumer behavior creates little incentive for businesses to pass along savings from the tariff rollback or improved global supply conditions.
Additionally, the stark contrast between US and international coffee prices highlights how trade policies can create market distortions. While Brazilian and Colombian producers benefit from strong global demand at lower prices, American consumers face a significantly different reality shaped by domestic policy decisions.
The coming months will reveal whether importers pass along savings from the tariff reversal and improved global supply conditions, though current market dynamics suggest prices may remain elevated as long as consumer demand holds steady. Industry observers have not confirmed when or if relief might reach American coffee drinkers.
