The “Sell America” narrative has regained momentum this year as trade war tensions escalate and former President Donald Trump’s aggressive policies toward international allies create market uncertainty. However, according to Alpine Macro, an investment research firm, concerns about widespread divestment from US assets may be overblown despite the heightened geopolitical rhetoric surrounding American markets.
Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, argues that structural incentives make coordinated sell-offs of US assets highly impractical. The firm’s analysis suggests that while Trump’s tariff policies have strained relationships, particularly with the European Union, the gap between alarming headlines and actual market behavior remains substantial.
Why the Sell America Trend May Be Exaggerated
According to Alamariu, several factors limit the likelihood of a Europe-wide exodus from American investments. Geopolitical tensions are inherently self-limiting and serve neither side’s interests, the strategist noted. Additionally, investors typically prioritize returns over long-term geopolitical grudges, especially when tensions show signs of easing.
Market participants have cited Trump’s unconventional domestic and foreign policies, mounting national debt, and antagonistic approach toward allies as reasons for bearish sentiment on US assets. These concerns have occasionally prompted investors to reduce exposure to dollar-denominated securities, including stocks, bonds, and the US currency itself.
European Investors Continue Supporting US Markets
Despite the narrative suggesting capital flight from American markets, government data reveals that European investors remained among the top purchasers of US Treasury securities last year. This contradicts claims that the Sell America movement has gained significant traction across the continent. Alpine Macro’s research indicates no evidence of mass dumping of US assets by European institutional or retail investors.
The strategist emphasized that there is currently no widespread adoption of the Sell America strategy among European market participants. However, recent developments in Asia have added complexity to the situation. China’s move urging its banks to scale back US Treasury investments has reignited discussions about potential divestment from American debt securities.
US Economic Advantages Remain Intact
Meanwhile, Alamariu predicts that positive investor sentiment will continue outweighing bearish views on American markets. The Trump administration is expected to pursue economic stimulus measures in 2026 ahead of midterm elections, which could support market performance. Additionally, US dominance in critical sectors like high technology and superior innovation capacity make American assets attractive despite policy concerns.
In contrast to doom-and-gloom scenarios, the research firm maintains that America’s structural economic advantages provide a compelling case for continued foreign investment. Foreign investors recognize that the US market offers opportunities unavailable in other developed economies, particularly in cutting-edge technology sectors and innovation-driven industries.
Potential Risks to Watch
Alamariu acknowledged one scenario where Sell America concerns could materialize into genuine market pressure. If US markets significantly underperform relative to international peers amid major geopolitical disruptions, more investors might pivot toward alternative markets. This represents the primary risk factor that could validate current bearish narratives about American asset exposure.
The strategist noted that while Trump’s rhetoric regarding territories like Greenland fueled fresh concerns earlier this year, such episodes have proven temporary rather than catalysts for sustained capital outflows. The distinction between political theater and fundamental economic drivers remains crucial for investors assessing long-term allocation strategies.
Market observers will continue monitoring transatlantic relations and US-China dynamics to assess whether Sell America sentiment intensifies or fades as geopolitical uncertainties evolve throughout 2026. The direction of trade negotiations and any shifts in foreign central bank reserve management strategies will provide clearer signals about sustained trends versus temporary market reactions.
