Bitcoin’s prolonged downturn is intensifying as the leading cryptocurrency dropped below $70,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in 15 months. The bitcoin bear market has now erased 44% of the token’s value since it reached an all-time high near $126,000, sparking growing concerns among investors about an extended period of decline.
Market analysts are warning that the current sell-off represents more than just a temporary correction. According to Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst at Coin Bureau, bitcoin could potentially fall to $55,700 if it fails to maintain support above the $70,000 threshold.
Bitcoin Bear Market Enters Full Capitulation Mode
Puckrin described the current market conditions as “full capitulation mode” in a note released Thursday. He attributed the decline to large-scale selling by bitcoin whales and institutional investors, suggesting this marks a fundamental shift in market dynamics rather than short-term volatility.
The analyst emphasized that historical patterns indicate this downturn could extend for months rather than weeks. He noted that the market appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase to a reset period, based on previous cryptocurrency cycles.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
Multiple market strategists have identified key support levels that could determine bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Zack Shapiro, head of policy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, indicated that the cryptocurrency might not find solid support until reaching its 200-week moving average around $58,000, representing an additional 15% decline from current levels.
Meanwhile, Katie Stockton, a prominent technical strategist, told Business Insider that a meaningful break below $70,000 would likely send bitcoin to approximately $57,800. She noted in her recent analysis that the breach of weekly technical indicators suggests the cyclical uptrend has lost momentum, pointing to several volatile months ahead.
Shapiro acknowledged the market is experiencing both panic selling and profit-taking, with many early bitcoin investors choosing to cash out their positions. He observed that sellers currently outnumber buyers in the market, contributing to continued downward pressure on prices.
Severe Price Predictions Emerge
Investment firm Stifel issued one of the more bearish forecasts this week, projecting bitcoin could plummet another 45% to reach $38,000. The firm based its analysis on historical patterns of bitcoin bear market lows spanning the past 15 years, according to a note sent to clients Wednesday.
Additionally, John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, predicted bitcoin might drop to $40,000 over the next six to eight months. His forecast considers the typical duration of crypto winters and potential selling pressure from corporate holders like Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
However, Michael Burry, the investor famous for “The Big Short,” issued an even more dire warning. The longtime bitcoin skeptic cautioned in a Substack post this week that the cryptocurrency could enter a “death spiral,” outlining various catastrophic scenarios if the sell-off continues.
Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Under Scrutiny
Despite the pessimistic short-term outlook, some analysts maintain that bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain intact. Shapiro stated he believes institutional adoption and other long-term supporting factors continue to provide a foundation for eventual recovery, though timing remains uncertain.
In contrast, Puckrin’s analysis suggests the market structure has fundamentally shifted, requiring a prolonged period of consolidation before any sustainable recovery can begin. The distinction between temporary corrections and structural bear markets has become a central debate among cryptocurrency analysts.
Market participants will closely monitor whether bitcoin can maintain support above the $70,000 level in coming sessions, as further breaks could trigger additional technical selling and accelerate the decline toward lower support zones identified by analysts.
