Bitcoin could plunge to $40,000 in the coming months as the cryptocurrency winter extends, according to John Blank, chief strategist at Zacks Investment Research. This forecast suggests a potential 49% decline from current levels, adding to the crypto’s already significant losses since reaching its peak near $126,000 in 2024.
Blank shared his outlook during a CNBC appearance on Monday, noting that bitcoin briefly dipped below $75,000 to its lowest level since President Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. The cryptocurrency has already tumbled 37% from last year’s high and officially entered bear market territory in November following the largest liquidation event in its history.
The analyst arrived at his $40,000 target by analyzing the trajectory of bitcoin’s recent price highs and lows. He emphasized that multiple factors could drive the cryptocurrency to this level within the next six to eight months if current market conditions persist.
Extended Bitcoin Winter Timeline
According to Blank, historical patterns suggest the current downturn may be far from over. Cryptocurrency winters typically last between 12 and 18 months, he explained, characterizing these extended bear markets as well-understood technical features of the crypto market.
The cryptocurrency has already experienced four consecutive months of losses through January, marking its longest losing streak in approximately seven years. This sustained decline reflects heightened risk-off sentiment among investors who have pulled back from volatile digital assets.
Additionally, the current bear market may still be in relatively early stages despite the significant price decline already witnessed. This extended timeline could test investor patience and create additional downward pressure on bitcoin prices.
Strategy’s Potential Bitcoin Sales Risk
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin with approximately 713,502 coins representing about 3% of total supply, presents another potential risk factor. The company has faced scrutiny over speculation that it may need to sell holdings if market conditions deteriorate further.
In late 2025, Strategy CEO Phong Le indicated the firm could be forced to sell some bitcoin as a last resort if mNAV drops below one. This metric, which measures Strategy’s stock price relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings, currently stands at approximately 1.1 according to company data.
Meanwhile, Blank questioned when forced selling and liquidations from crypto treasury companies like Strategy might accelerate bitcoin’s decline to the $40,000 level. The company has continued aggressively purchasing bitcoin even during the current bear market, raising concerns about potential market impact if it reverses course.
Market Liquidity Concerns
However, declining liquidity has emerged as another significant challenge for bitcoin markets. Blank pointed to the cryptocurrency’s inelastic market characteristics, explaining that bitcoin supply remains unaffected by price changes and requires fresh sources of demand to support valuations.
Market depth, which measures the market’s ability to absorb large trades without significant price impact, has declined approximately 30% from its October peak. This data from analytics firm Kaiko, cited by Bloomberg, highlights deteriorating trading conditions in bitcoin markets.
In contrast to previous bull markets where new demand sources drove explosive price growth, current conditions show waning liquidity that could amplify downward price movements. When markets become illiquid, Blank warned, price declines tend to multiply much faster and pull away more dramatically.
Market participants will continue monitoring bitcoin’s price action and key support levels in the coming months to assess whether Blank’s $40,000 prediction materializes. The timeline and severity of the cryptocurrency winter remain uncertain as investors navigate volatile market conditions and evolving risk sentiment.
