A 20-year-old retail trader has published a detailed bearish thesis on Palantir Technologies, arguing that the artificial intelligence company’s stock is dramatically overvalued and poised for a significant decline. Laurence Bradingmunn, posting on Reddit’s Burryology forum dedicated to investor Michael Burry, disclosed his position against Palantir stock through put options with strike prices in 2027 and 2028, mirroring the strategy employed by Burry himself.
According to an interview with Business Insider, Bradingmunn believes Palantir should trade around $50 per share compared to its Friday closing price of $146.59. The retail trader cited inspiration from Burry’s own short position against the company, which was disclosed in regulatory filings last year.
Concerns About Palantir Stock Valuation Drive Bearish Bet
Bradingmunn’s central argument centers on Palantir’s $350 billion market capitalization, which he considers unjustifiable when compared to tech peers with similar valuations. He pointed to companies like AMD, Salesforce, and Adobe as examples of firms with comparable market caps but substantially higher profits, suggesting that Palantir stock cannot grow quickly enough to justify its current price.
The young investor expressed difficulty understanding exactly how Palantir generates revenue, which he cited as another red flag in his analysis. Additionally, he raised concerns about the company’s significant share dilution, noting that outstanding shares have increased from approximately 1 billion when the company listed on the New York Stock Exchange to roughly 2.38 billion shares as of late 2025.
AI Bubble Concerns Amplify Bearish Thesis
Beyond company-specific issues, Bradingmunn articulated broader worries about the artificial intelligence sector as a whole. In his Reddit post, he stated he is betting alongside Burry’s thesis that an AI bubble is about to burst, with Palantir representing an extreme example of overvaluation driven by government contracts and AI hype.
Despite not working in finance, Bradingmunn told Business Insider he has followed Burry’s investment approach for years. He acknowledged that Palantir may benefit from lucrative defense contracts with the US government but maintained that these opportunities are already priced into the stock at unsustainable levels.
Retail Investor Sentiment Creates Additional Risk
The retail trader also highlighted Palantir’s status as a heavily favored stock among retail investors, many of whom express deep admiration for CEO Alex Karp. However, Bradingmunn speculated that this enthusiastic following may be preventing proper fundamental analysis of the company’s actual financial performance.
He acknowledged the appeal of following popular sentiment on social media platforms but emphasized his attempt to develop a more analytical approach. Meanwhile, Palantir stock has declined 17% year to date, though it remains up 83% over the past year, reflecting the volatility that has characterized the AI sector.
Reddit Emerges as Platform for Stock Market Analysis
Bradingmunn’s detailed post represents the latest example of Reddit serving as a venue for substantive stock market debate beyond meme stock culture. The platform gained prominence during the GameStop short squeeze sparked by Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, and more recently saw a retail trader’s massive Beyond Meat position disclosed in October lead to a significant short squeeze.
In contrast to bullish Reddit posts that typically dominate retail investor forums, Bradingmunn’s bearish analysis on Palantir stock demonstrates the platform’s evolution as a space for diverse investment perspectives. His post drew attention partly because it appeared in the Burryology forum, where followers of the famous investor discuss contrarian market positions.
The ultimate outcome of Bradingmunn’s bearish bet on Palantir stock will depend on whether the company’s growth trajectory and government contract wins can support its current valuation, or whether concerns about the AI bubble and fundamental overvaluation prove correct over his 2027-2028 timeline.
