President Trump is expected to announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in the coming days, with BlackRock’s Rick Rieder emerging as the leading candidate according to prediction markets. The nomination comes as Stephen Miran’s term as Fed governor expires this month, creating a tight timeline for the administration to act. With decades of investment experience in fixed-income markets, Rieder’s potential selection could provide reassurance to financial markets that have been rattled by Trump’s recent challenges to Fed independence.
The shortlist for the Federal Reserve Chair position includes Rick Rieder, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, the only sitting Fed governor among the candidates. If Trump selects an external candidate rather than Waller, he must also nominate that person to serve as a Fed governor, likely replacing Miran. According to prediction market Kalshi, interest in Rieder has surged in recent days, displacing previous favorites Hassett and Warsh.
Experience and Market Impact of Potential Fed Chair
Rick Rieder brings substantial credentials to the potential Federal Reserve Chair role, including extensive fixed-income investment experience and prior service on advisory committees to both the Federal Reserve and Treasury. He currently holds senior fixed-income positions at BlackRock and previously worked at Lehman Brothers and SunTrust. His background in investment management differs from many recent Fed chairs who came primarily from academic or government economics backgrounds.
Financial markets may respond positively to the appointment of a candidate with significant investment expertise who operates outside Trump’s immediate political circle. However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve Chair holds only one vote among 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. While the chair plays a crucial leadership role in monetary policy decisions, they cannot independently determine policy direction without broader committee support.
Current Fed Policy and Rate Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold interest rates steady at its January 28 meeting, according to market forecasts. Over the remainder of 2026, rates are projected to move somewhat lower as the Fed balances inflation concerns against signs of softness in the job market. Despite any upcoming nomination for a new Federal Reserve Chair, current Chair Jerome Powell may remain in his position until May.
Additionally, the FOMC currently views inflation as slightly above its 2% annual target while observing some weakness in employment data. This combination suggests the committee may avoid abrupt policy changes unless the job market demonstrates clear deterioration or inflation returns more comfortably to target levels. The Fed’s cautious stance reflects uncertainty about the economic outlook amid ongoing policy debates.
Political Context and Fed Independence
The upcoming nomination follows a period of heightened tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. President Trump previously attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and made legal threats that prompted Jerome Powell and other prominent banking officials to publicly defend the central bank’s independence. These conflicts have raised concerns about potential political interference in monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, prediction markets have shown volatile swings in recent weeks regarding the likely nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. Kevin Hassett held the position as favorite in late 2025, but momentum has shifted among the leading candidates. The fluid nature of the speculation reflects the significant uncertainty surrounding Trump’s ultimate choice for this critical economic position.
A formal nomination announcement is expected within days due to the expiring term of Fed Governor Stephen Miran and the procedural requirement to first appoint any external candidate to the Board of Governors. Regardless of who is selected, the nomination is unlikely to produce immediate changes in monetary policy, with the Fed maintaining its current course at the upcoming January meeting.
