The Anatomy of Business Success: Insights from a Landmark Study
What makes a successful business successful? Management consultants, startup founders, and financial analysts all have theories, ranging from strong leadership to innovative cultures. However, the largest-ever study of its kind, analyzing data from 50 million American companies, reveals the most critical factor: money. Led by economist John Haltiwanger, the study examined companies founded between 1981 and 2022, looking at factors such as owner demographics, management structures, and founder aspirations. The results showed that the amount of pre-launch financing a company secures is the strongest predictor of success. For example, starting with $1 million boosts success chances by 25 percentage points. Importantly, the source of funding matters: venture capital (VC) boosts success by 5 points, while self-financing with credit cards decreases chances by 2 points.
The Unequal Access to Venture Capital
While venture capital emerges as the most effective funding source, access to it is far from equal. Only a few thousand of the 1.5 million companies launched annually receive VC investment. The study confirms a persistent bias in VC funding, favoring young, white men. Women and nonwhite owners are less likely to secure outside investors, highlighting systemic inequalities in the startup ecosystem. This disparity not only limits opportunities for underrepresented groups but also narrows the pipeline of innovative ideas. Economist Florian Ederer notes that success often depends on networks and initial resources, perpetuating a cycle where those who start with advantages are more likely to thrive.
The Decline of Business Dynamism
Haltiwanger’s study also raises a troubling question: why are young companies growing slower and creating fewer jobs than they used to? In 1981, 15% of working Americans were employed at companies four years old or younger, but by 2022, this number dropped to just 9%. Moreover, the growth rate of dynamic companies has slowed significantly since 1999. This trend is concerning because young, fast-growing companies are often the drivers of innovation and productivity. The decline in business dynamism has broader implications for the economy, contributing to slower aggregate productivity growth. While some may argue that innovation continues behind the scenes, the data suggests something fundamental has changed.
Theories Behind the Slowdown
Haltiwanger proposes several theories to explain the slowdown. First, he suggests that the types of businesses being started may have shifted away from high-growth tech firms toward less scalable ventures like restaurants or yoga studios. While more women and people of color are starting businesses, they often lack access to venture capital and are more likely to self-finance with credit cards, limiting their ability to scale. Second, he points to the dominance of Big Tech companies, which may be absorbing talent that would otherwise start new ventures. Third, the rise of acquisitions over initial public offerings (IPOs) means startups are being swallowed by larger firms rather than growing into independent giants.
The Promise of Artificial Intelligence
Despite the gloomy trends, Haltiwanger remains optimistic about the future. He believes the current slowdown in business growth might be the calm before a storm of innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). AI could unlock transformative changes in business and society, much like the IT revolution of the 1990s. The surge in AI-related startups in recent years supports this theory. However, the impact of AI remains uncertain. While it could drive productivity and create new opportunities, it also risks exacerbating inequality by favoring well-capitalized incumbents or displacing jobs on a massive scale.
The Broader Implications for the Economy
The study’s findings challenge the conventional narrative of Silicon Valley’s meritocratic startup culture, revealing instead a system where opportunities are unevenly distributed. The decline in business dynamism has real-world consequences, from slower productivity growth to fewer job opportunities. Yet, the potential for AI to reignite innovation offers hope. Haltiwanger’s work underscores the importance of understanding these shifts, as they will shape the future of the economy and society. By addressing the barriers to equal access to funding and fostering an environment where all entrepreneurs can thrive, we may unlock a new wave of growth and innovation.
