The Atlanta Hawks are facing an unexpected setback in their draft lottery positioning as the NBA’s anti-tanking measures inadvertently hurt their chances of securing a premium pick. According to a report from The Athletic, the league recently held a call with all 30 teams to discuss potential changes to combat NBA tanking, though officials confirmed no adjustments will be implemented before this year’s draft. This timing could prove costly for the Hawks, who acquired an unprotected 2026 first-round pick from the New Orleans Pelicans in last year’s draft.
The Hawks traded the No. 13 overall pick to the Pelicans during the 2025 NBA draft in exchange for the No. 23 pick and New Orleans’ 2026 first-rounder. That pick is actually the better of the Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks’ selections, making it a potentially valuable asset. However, recent developments have diminished its expected value considerably.
NBA Tanking Crackdown Creates Unintended Consequences
The NBA has intensified its efforts against NBA tanking in recent weeks, fining the Utah Jazz $500,000 for resting healthy starters during competitive games, according to league announcements. The Indiana Pacers received a $100,000 fine for holding out Pascal Siakam and two other starters who could have played under the medical standards outlined in the league’s player participation policy. NBA commissioner Adam Silver told reporters at All-Star Weekend that “every possible remedy” was being considered to combat tanking.
These measures have created an unusual situation where teams without control of their draft picks have no incentive to lose games. The Pelicans and Bucks both fall into this category, and their competitive efforts are directly impacting the Hawks’ draft positioning. Meanwhile, teams that do control their picks have embraced tanking strategies late in the season.
Pelicans’ Winning Streak Damages Hawks’ Draft Position
The Pelicans held the NBA’s worst record at 10-36 one month ago, which would have given the Hawks significant lottery odds. However, since New Orleans doesn’t own their first-round pick this year, they have no reason to tank. The team has subsequently posted an 8-6 record over the past month while fielding competitive lineups.
Additionally, the Pelicans have the 13th-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon. They recently began a six-game road trip featuring multiple games against the Jazz and Sacramento Kings, plus a home matchup against the Washington Wizards. These winnable games could push New Orleans even higher in the standings.
The draft lottery implications are significant. Teams with the three worst records each have a 14.0% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick and better than a 50-50 shot at a top-four selection. However, the fifth-worst record yields only a 10.5% chance at No. 1 and roughly 42% odds at a top-four pick. The Pelicans also face nearly a 40% chance of landing at No. 6 or No. 7 with the fifth-worst record.
The floor of the pick matters substantially as well. Since only the top four lottery slots are determined by the drawing, teams cannot fall more than four spots from their pre-lottery position. With the fifth-worst record, the Pelicans would have an 8.7% chance of slipping to No. 8 and 0.6% odds of dropping to No. 9.
Bucks Also Trending Away From Lottery Territory
The Milwaukee Bucks present a similar problem for Atlanta. Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed 14 consecutive games due to a calf injury he suffered in late January, with ESPN reporting he expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Despite his absence, the Bucks have posted an 8-2 record over their past 10 games.
Like the Pelicans, Milwaukee doesn’t control their first-round pick, receiving only the worse of their own and New Orleans’ selections. Instead of tanking, the Bucks have remained competitive with contributions from Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, and new acquisition Cam Thomas. They now sit just 1.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Charlotte Hornets in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks also benefit from the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon. Even if they miss the play-in tournament, Milwaukee is unlikely to finish with a worse record than the Wizards, Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, or Chicago Bulls. They figure to enter lottery night with approximately the 10th-worst record, yielding roughly 13.9% odds at a top-four pick and more than 20% chance of falling to No. 11 or No. 12.
While teams in similar positions have won the lottery in recent years, the mathematical odds remain unfavorable. The Hawks cannot realistically expect the Bucks’ pick to deliver a franchise cornerstone like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, or Cameron Boozer in June.
The final month of the regular season will determine where the Pelicans and Bucks ultimately land in the lottery standings, with key matchups against tanking teams potentially shaping the final outcome. However, the Hawks’ hopes for a premium draft pick appear to be fading as the NBA’s anti-tanking efforts produce their intended result.
