The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues to intensify as the Grade II Rebel Stakes prepares to take center stage at Oaklawn Park on March 1, 2026. The $1 million Kentucky Derby prep race will award crucial qualifying points, with 50 points going to the winner, making it one of the most significant stepping stones for three-year-old contenders aiming for Churchill Downs in May.
A field of nine horses will compete in the Rebel Stakes after the scratch of Bravaro from the one post. The race has a storied history dating back to 1961 and has produced notable Kentucky Derby contenders, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.
Leading Contenders in the Rebel Stakes
Litmus Test enters as a strong favorite after capturing the Los Alamitos Futurity under trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race a record eight times. The Nyquist colt will make his three-year-old debut with regular rider Flavien Prat aboard at 7-2 morning line odds. Additionally, he demonstrated his ability to travel with a solid third-place finish in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
However, the favorite on the morning line is Blackout Time at 8-5 odds for trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. The Not This Time colt boasts one win and two seconds in three career starts, including a commanding 9¾-length victory at Ellis Park last August. His most recent outing saw him finish a strong second to Ted Noffey in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
Recent Form and Home Track Advantage
Silent Tactic enters with significant momentum after his impressive Southwest Stakes victory at Oaklawn Park on February 6. The Mark Casse trainee closed powerfully down the lane, demonstrating the same finishing kick that earned him second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Meanwhile, his stablemate Strategic Risk presents a puzzle after winning the Smarty Jones convincingly but finishing 10th in the Southwest Stakes.
Todd Pletcher sends Class President from Florida after a second-place finish in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 31. The Uncle Mo colt has shown proficiency at the one-mile distance and represents a dangerous value proposition with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez in the irons.
Dark Horses and Long Shots in Derby Prep
Brad Cox enters Rancho Santa Fe, a Tapit colt who won both starts as a two-year-old but has struggled slightly in 2026 with a fifth and fourth-place finish. Nevertheless, the combination of Cox’s training prowess and rider Irad Ortiz Jr. makes him intriguing at 12-1 odds. According to recent performances, the colt showed fight in finishing fourth in the Southwest Stakes.
Steve Asmussen saddles two runners in the race. Soldier N Diplomat appears the more formidable of the pair after hitting the board in four of five lifetime starts, including a solid second in the Southwest Stakes. In contrast, Time For Music faces a significant class test at 30-1 odds with limited experience against this caliber of competition.
Points and Purse Distribution
The Rebel Stakes offers qualifying points under the Kentucky Derby points system, with the top 20 point earners worldwide gaining entry to Churchill Downs. Points are distributed to the top five finishers: 50-25-15-10-5. This structure means even horses finishing outside the winner’s circle can boost their Derby credentials significantly.
The race will be contested over 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, providing a true test of stamina and class for these developing three-year-olds. The $1 million purse adds financial incentive to the already substantial Derby qualifying points at stake.
Post time for the Rebel Stakes is scheduled for March 1, with the race serving as a crucial indicator of which horses possess legitimate Kentucky Derby credentials. The racing world will watch closely to see if Bob Baffert can extend his record with a ninth Rebel Stakes victory or if a new contender emerges on the Road to the Roses.
