From Tariffs to the Ukraine War: How Global Leaders are Navigating the Trump Era
Introduction
Since his inauguration on January 20, President Donald Trump has been at odds with leaders worldwide, from tariff disputes to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While Trump frames his assertive approach as "America First," many of these leaders have seen political gains. Data indicates that leaders perceived as standing their ground with Trump while maintaining diplomatic engagement are experiencing rising approval ratings and improved political standing. This trend is evident in countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Ukraine, where leaders like Justin Trudeau, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have strategically navigated these tensions to their advantage. This article explores how these leaders have leveraged their interactions with Trump to bolster their domestic support and the factors contributing to their political resilience.
Canada and Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau, Canada’s Prime Minister since 2015, stepped down on March 9, 2025, paving the way for economist Mark Carney to take office. Trudeau faced mounting pressure to resign due to rising costs of living, intraparty conflicts, and questions over his immigration policies. Trump’s tariff threats against Canada further intensified this pressure. Initially, Trudeau adopted a conciliatory approach, appointing a "fentanyl czar" to address U.S. concerns about drug trafficking. However, as Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian exports, Trudeau took a firmer stance, asserting Canada’s sovereignty.
Canadian federal polls reveal a significant shift in public opinion. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had a 24 percentage point lead in early January but saw this gap narrow to just 5.5 percentage points by March 17, with the Liberals trailing at 33.4% support. Analysts attribute this surge to Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s leadership, Trump’s tariff threats, and voter discomfort with Poilievre’s Trump-like style. Many voters are reevaluating their support for the Conservatives, with Carney appealing to a broader spectrum of voters.
Mexico and Claudia Sheinbaum
Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, has enjoyed unprecedented approval ratings since her inauguration in October 2024. In response to Trump’s tariff threats, she deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to address immigration concerns. Her approval ratings have soared, with recent polls showing 80% to 85% approval, the highest in 30 years. While Mexicans perceive the relationship with Trump as strained, they appreciate her handling of the situation, particularly her patient approach that led to tariff delays.
Sheinbaum’s success is partly due to her predecessor’s legacy and her continuation of popular social welfare policies. However, her handling of the U.S.-Mexico relationship has also been a significant factor. Mexicans have rallied around her leadership amid external pressures, demonstrating strong national unity and support for her diplomatic strategy.
Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy escalated in February, with Trump accusing Zelenskyy of being a "dictator" and suspending military aid to Ukraine. Zelenskyy maintained a conciliatory tone, emphasizing gratitude for U.S. support and demonstrating openness to peace negotiations. Despite these challenges, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have increased, with 67% of Ukrainians expressing trust in him in March, a 10% rise from February.
Analysts believe Ukrainians view Trump’s rhetoric as an attack on their nation, leading to increased support for Zelenskyy. His ability to maintain a diplomatic stance while advocating for Ukraine’s interests has strengthened his domestic standing, ensuring continued support amid external pressures.
Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have also navigated the Trump administration’s foreign policy challenges, particularly regarding the Ukraine war. After Trump excluded European leaders from discussions with Russia, Starmer and Macron took proactive steps, with Macron hosting an emergency summit and Starmer forming a "coalition of the willing" to devise a peace plan. Both leaders have seen improvements in their approval ratings, with Starmer’s rising from 22% to 27% and Macron’s increasing from 17% to 27%.
Their ability to navigate international crises effectively has resonated with their constituencies. Starmer’s approval ratings have climbed due to his strategic responses to challenging situations, while Macron’s handling of the Ukraine conflict has highlighted his leadership on the global stage. These leaders’ proactive approaches have bolstered their domestic support, demonstrating the political dividends of effective diplomacy in times of crisis.
Conclusion
The interactions between Trump and global leaders have created both challenges and opportunities. While Trump’s assertive diplomacy has strained international relations, leaders like Trudeau, Sheinbaum, Zelenskyy, Starmer, and Macron have leveraged these tensions to strengthen their political positions. By balancing firmness with diplomacy, these leaders have not only navigated U.S. pressures but also garnered increased domestic support, demonstrating the complexity of political leadership in an era of heightened global tensions. The ability to maintain national sovereignty while managing external pressures has proven to be a key factor in their political resilience and public approval.
