China’s Nuclear Arsenal Modernization: An Overview
China’s nuclear arsenal is undergoing significant modernization, though it still lags behind the United States in terms of overall capabilities, according to a recent report by the Federation of American Scientists. The report, published on March 12, highlights China’s efforts to expand and upgrade its nuclear weapons, but it emphasizes that Beijing has not yet reached parity with Washington. The study comes amid heightened tensions between the two superpowers, with the U.S. calling for China to join nuclear disarmament talks. However, China has been reluctant to engage in such discussions, arguing that the U.S. should lead by example given its much larger nuclear stockpile.
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China currently possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, which can be delivered via land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and bombers. This figure aligns with the Pentagon’s assessment from December 2023, which projected that China’s nuclear arsenal could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. However, the report notes that most of China’s warheads are in storage, with only 24 actively deployed. In contrast, the U.S. maintains a significantly larger nuclear arsenal, with 3,748 warheads as of 2023, including both operational and nonoperational weapons.
While the Pentagon has expressed concerns about China’s advancing nuclear capabilities, the Federation of American Scientists cautions against the idea that China’s modernization efforts will soon match the scale of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Even under the worst-case scenario, with China potentially possessing 1,500 warheads by 2035, this would still amount to less than half of the current U.S. stockpile. The report also highlights that China is still in the process of developing a nuclear triad—a robust combination of land-based missiles, submarines, and bombers.
China’s Nuclear Strategy and Policy
China’s nuclear strategy has long been centered around the principle of "minimum deterrence," with a focus on self-defense. Beijing has consistently adhered to a "no-first-use" policy, pledging not to deploy nuclear weapons unless faced with an existential threat. However, the Federation of American Scientists suggests that this policy may have a "high threshold," given China’s significant advancements in conventional military capabilities. This raises concerns that in high-stakes scenarios, such as a military conflict over Taiwan, China and the U.S. might be willing to use nuclear weapons if they deem it necessary.
The report points to Taiwan as a potential flashpoint where nuclear weapons could come into play. The Pentagon has warned that China might consider using nuclear weapons if it faces a conventional military defeat in Taiwan, which Beijing views as an integral part of its territory. China has repeatedly threatened to reserve all options, including military force, to prevent Taiwan’s independence. Meanwhile, the U.S. has continued to sell arms to Taiwan, which has further strained relations with Beijing.
Expert Opinions and Reactions
The Federation of American Scientists has described China as the country with the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states. It also noted that China is the only signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that is significantly expanding its nuclear capabilities. This has raised concerns among arms control advocates, who fear that China’s nuclear buildup could undermine global efforts to reduce nuclear stockpiles.
Chinese officials have defended their nuclear strategy, emphasizing that it is driven by national security needs. Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry, reiterated Beijing’s commitment to a "no-first-use" policy and its pursuit of a "self-defense" nuclear strategy. He also stressed that China maintains its nuclear strength at the "minimum level required for national security." However, the U.S. and its allies remain skeptical, given China’s ongoing modernization efforts and its refusal to engage in multilateral arms control talks.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Implications
The future of U.S.-China nuclear relations remains uncertain, particularly as tensions over Taiwan and other geopolitical issues continue to escalate. The Federation of American Scientists report underscores the need for resumed arms control talks between the two powers, which have been stalled since last summer due to Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan. However, the likelihood of such negotiations resuming anytime soon appears slim, given the current diplomatic impasse.
As China continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, the U.S. and its allies will likely remain vigilant, closely monitoring Beijing’s nuclear capabilities and strategic intentions. At the same time, the international community will need to navigate the complex dynamics of nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region, where the stakes are high and the potential for miscalculation is ever-present. The coming years will be critical in determining whether China and the U.S. can find common ground on nuclear issues or whether their rivalry will further destabilize the global nuclear landscape.
