March Madness 2023: Betting Insights and Early Thoughts
Let the Madness Begin: The 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Field Is Set
The 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament is officially underway, and the excitement is palpable. With the 68-team field locked in, the opening-round betting lines are starting to take shape, and the action is heating up. As the odds boards lit up like a Christmas tree in the hours following Selection Sunday, sharp bettors and casual fans alike are preparing for what many consider the best damn betting event in America. FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich shares his early thoughts, market moves, and sharp insights to help you navigate the chaos of March Madness.
Duke, led by its loaded roster, is a strong contender to make a deep run, and Panayotovich likes their chances of reaching the Final Four at -115 on FanDuel. However, the Blue Devils’ path won’t be easy, especially if they face Arizona in the Sweet 16. For now, Duke’s talent and depth make them a formidable team in the East Region.
Betting Lines and Sharp Moves: Where the Wise Guys Are Putting Their Money
The South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas was buzzing with activity as sportsbook director Chris Andrews catered to the sharp crowd. Early action showed significant interest in Grand Canyon and UConn, with bettors firing away at $10,000 limits. Andrews also noted early money coming in for SIU-Edwardsville as 30-point underdogs against Houston, a sign that the sharps are looking for value in some of the bigger mismatches.
One of the most critical pieces of advice Panayotovich emphasizes is the importance of shopping for the best numbers. With staggering variance across sportsbooks, bettors could save—or lose—thousands of dollars depending on where they place their wagers. For example, Colorado State’s odds to make the Final Four range from 50/1 at FanDuel to 125/1 at BetMGM. Shopping around isn’t just a tip; it’s a necessity for maximizing your edge.
Free Throws and Conference Championship Overreactions: Key Factors to Consider
When evaluating teams, free-throw shooting is often an overlooked but critical metric. Teams like Gonzaga (80%) and Wisconsin (83%) are elite at the line, which could prove decisive in close tournament games. Other strong free-throw shooting teams to keep an eye on include Oregon, Texas Tech, Michigan State, and UConn.
On the flip side, Panayotovich cautions against overreacting to conference championship results. Wisconsin’s loss to Michigan in the Big Ten title game, for instance, was likely influenced by the grueling schedule of four games in four days. Wisconsin alum Dan “Big Cat” Katz agrees, noting that the Badgers still have the potential to make a deep run despite their recent fatigue. “I hate that they put us in the altitude on short rest,” Katz said, “but Montana played two Power 4 opponents and got blown out both times.”
Expert Predictions and Bold Takes: Seth Davis and Chris "The Bear" Fallica Weigh In
Seth Davis of CBS Sports is known for his bold upset picks, and this year is no exception. Davis likes UC San Diego, High Point, McNeese, Utah State, and Yale to pull off first-round stunners. While some of these picks might seem far-fetched, it’s hard to discount Davis’s conviction. On the other hand, Panayotovich admits he’s willing to pivot from his own bracket if the situation calls for it. Four years ago, he famously flipped his Illinois bet to Loyola Chicago +7 in the Round of 32, proving that flexibility is key in tournament betting.
Meanwhile, Chris “The Bear” Fallica is fading Louisville in their first-round matchup against Creighton. “The Bear” likes Creighton +2.5, suggesting that the line could move to +3 by tip-off. Despite Louisville’s home-state advantage, Fallica believes the Cardinals’ inconsistent season and struggles in non-conference play make them vulnerable against Creighton’s standout players, Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Strategic Betting Tips: First-Half Unders and Sticking with Your Guns
Sharp bettors often debate the merits of first-half unders versus full-game unders. Panayotovich points out that first-half unders are less susceptible to the unpredictability of tournament basketball, such as late-game fouling or overtime. If you’re a fan of betting unders, consider focusing on the first half to avoid those frustrating, game-ruining fouling sprees.
When it comes to Duke, Panayotovich is unapologetically sticking to his guns. Along with his “Bet Sweats” co-host Joe Ostrowski, he bet on the Blue Devils at 6-1 back in January, and he sees no reason to change his mind now. Despite the SEC’s dominance as the nation’s top conference, Panayotovich believes Duke is the most complete team in the country. With Cooper Flagg’s eventual return and their depth of talent, the Blue Devils have the tools to win it all.
Final Thoughts: Embrace the Chaos and May the Best Bettor Win
March Madness is as unpredictable as it gets, and this year’s tournament promises to deliver even more drama, upsets, and thrilling finishes. Whether you’re a seasoned sharp bettor or a casual fan, the key to success lies in preparation, flexibility, and seizing value where you find it.
As you dive into the action, remember to shop around for the best lines, don’t overreact to conference championship results, and stay open to pivoting your bets based on how the games unfold. And most importantly, embrace the madness—because in the NCAA Tournament, anything can happen.
For more insights, analysis, and expert picks, stay tuned to Sam Panayotovich and the FOX Sports betting team as they break down the best damn betting event in America.
