A Warning to Canada’s New Prime Minister: John Bolton Urges Caution in Dealing with Trump
In a recent interview, John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Adviser under Donald Trump, issued a stark warning to Canada’s newly sworn-in Prime Minister, Mark Carney. Bolton advised Carney to tread carefully in his interactions with Trump, particularly when it comes to trade and tariffs. While Bolton acknowledged that relations between the two countries under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, were strained, he emphasized that the situation "can’t get much worse." However, he cautioned Carney against adopting Trump’s distinctive rhetorical style, arguing that mimicking Trump’s approach would only serve to exacerbate tensions. "He can take any approach he wants on substance, but he shouldn’t sound like Donald Trump," Bolton said. "You’re not going to improve things by trying to match Trump’s rhetoric. Number one, no sane person can do it, and number two, it’s not going to help get a better outcome."
Bolton’s comments come amid a growing trade war between the U.S. and Canada, which began in early March. The conflict has seen both countries imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on each other’s products, with Canada set to introduce further measures on April 2. Bolton pointed to recent remarks by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who described Canada as "a neighbour, they are a partner … perhaps they are becoming a competitor now," as evidence of how rhetoric can shape the relationship. Bolton advised Carney to "grit your teeth" rather than engage in public exchanges that could escalate tensions. "It’s better to grit your teeth than to say things in public that could make it worse," he said.
Canada’s Optimism for a Trade Deal with the U.S.
Despite the challenges posed by the trade war, Canadian officials remain optimistic about the possibility of negotiating a favourable deal with the U.S. Last week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and federal ministers Dominic LeBlanc and Francois-Philippe Champagne, who will continue to serve in Carney’s cabinet, met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The meeting concluded with assurances of further talks and a sense of confidence that a mutually beneficial agreement could be reached. Carney himself expressed readiness to engage with Trump, stating in his first press conference as prime minister that he was prepared to meet with the U.S. President to discuss trade and other issues of mutual importance. However, Carney also made it clear that he had no immediate plans to visit Washington.
Carney’s approach reflects a mix of pragmatism and firmness. While he acknowledged the importance of maintaining a constructive relationship with the U.S., he was quick to dismiss Trump’s repeated suggestion that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state. "We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form be part of the United States," Carney declared, describing the idea as "crazy." Bolton, too, dismissed the annexation talk as "completely ridiculous," attributing it to Trump’s disregard for history and his tendency to use rhetoric as a distraction from more pressing issues.
The Fallout of Trump’s Rhetoric and the Trade War
Bolton’s critique of Trump’s approach to trade and diplomacy was scathing. He described Trump’s threats of annexation as a diversionary tactic aimed at shifting attention away from the economic fallout of his trade policies. "It’s pretty clear that businesses in the United States say that this is going to be the beginning of a trade war that’s going to leave everybody worse off," Bolton said. He added that Trump’s recent comments about the U.S.-Canada border being an "artificial line" drawn by "some guy years ago" reflect a profound ignorance of history. The border, Bolton noted, was established through negotiations with the British in 1818.
Bolton also warned that Trump’s lack of a coherent strategy could have far-reaching consequences. "His supporters say, ‘Well, it’s very sophisticated three-dimensional chess he’s playing,’ and I’ll just tell you it is not. It is one-dimensional, regular chess played out one move at a time, and no further ahead than that," Bolton said. This criticism echoes concerns that Trump’s impulsive approach to trade and foreign policy is exacerbating global economic uncertainty. Bolton pointed to the growing nervousness among businesses, which are delaying hiring and investment decisions as the trade war intensifies. "The effects are going to be felt, I think, increasingly, and that won’t do wonders for the market, that’s for sure," he said.
Bolton Warns of Geopolitical Risks: The Russia Factor
Bolton also raised concerns about the potential for other global leaders, particularly Russian President Vladimir Putin, to exploit Trump’s negotiating style. He suggested that Putin, who has been seeking a one-on-one meeting with Trump to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, believes he can manipulate Trump. "He doesn’t want to negotiate with lesser lights in the (Trump) administration," Bolton said. "(Putin) thinks he knows how to manipulate Trump, and he wants a one-on-one conversation to see if he can do that." This warning underscores the broader geopolitical risks of Trump’s approach to international relations, particularly when dealing with adversarial leaders like Putin.
Bolton’s remarks serve as a reminder of the challenges Carney will face as he navigates Canada’s relationship with the U.S. while also addressing the wider implications of Trump’s policies on global stability. As the trade war between the U.S. and Canada continues to escalate, Carney’s ability to balance firmness with diplomacy will be crucial in safeguarding Canada’s interests.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Relationship
In summary, John Bolton’s advice to Mark Carney reflects the complexities of dealing with a U.S. administration known for its unpredictable and often divisive rhetoric. Bolton’s warnings highlight the importance of maintaining a strategically cautious approach in interactions with Trump, avoiding rhetorical matches that could further strain relations. At the same time, the optimism expressed by Canadian officials about the potential for a favourable trade deal suggests that there may still be room for constructive dialogue.
However, the challenges posed by Trump’s approach to trade and diplomacy cannot be underestimated. Bolton’s critique of Trump’s lack of strategic foresight and his use of rhetoric as a distraction from economic fallout serves as a reminder of the broader risks associated with the current U.S. administration. Moving forward, Carney and his government will need to navigate these challenges with care, ensuring that Canada’s sovereignty and interests are protected while also working towards a resolution to the ongoing trade conflict.
Ultimately, the trajectory of U.S.-Canada relations under Carney’s leadership will depend on his ability to balance firmness with diplomacy, avoiding the pitfalls of Trump’s rhetorical style while seeking common ground on issues like trade. As the trade war continues to evolve, the coming weeks and months will provide a clearer picture of whether Carney’s approach will yield the desired outcomes.
