Baseball’s Extension Candidates: A Deep Dive into Potential Deals
Introduction to Extension Week
Monday’s exploration of Paul Skenes, one of the most intriguing extension cases in baseball, served as a preview of Extension Week. Now, the focus shifts to a broader analysis of potential extension candidates, starting with players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents. These players are generally less likely to sign extensions with free agency looming at the end of the 2024 season. The analysis here projects their potential earnings on the open market, factoring in their 2025 salaries. It’s an early glimpse into what could be a bustling free-agent market this winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players signed extensions, with each earning slightly more than initially projected. The table below highlights the deals:
| Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 4 years, $136M | 3 years, $126M |
| Player 2 | 5 years, $82.5M | 10 years, $122.4M |
| Player 3 | 6 years, $48M | 6 years, $55M |
These extensions were analyzed using a comprehensive Excel spreadsheet containing over 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts, along with performance data from FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR). The process involves comparing players with similar production levels and team control to estimate potential earnings.
Key Considerations in Player Valuation
When evaluating extension candidates, several factors come into play:
- Team Control: Players with more team control typically sign shorter extensions with lower average annual values (AAV). However, free-agent deals can serve as a benchmark for the latter part of a player’s contract.
- Position Players and Starting Pitchers: For these players, fWAR over one, three, and five years is considered, with a focus on recent performance. Relievers, however, are evaluated based on one- and two-year samples due to the volatility of the position.
- Market Projections: The exercise focuses on player valuation rather than the likelihood of an extension or whether a deal should be signed. Even if an extension seems unlikely, the analysis provides insights into potential market value.
Key points to keep in mind:
- Actual extension projections include the player’s 2024 salary, resulting in a lower AAV than what they might earn in free agency.
- Players approaching free agency typically have higher projections than those further away, as they are no longer earning below-market salaries through arbitration.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker: Rising Stars
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26) had a standout 2023 season, earning 5.5 fWAR and reestablishing himself as one of baseball’s elite hitters. His performance has positioned him just below the top tier of first basemen, led by Miguel Cabrera. Guerrero’s potential extension could span 14 free-agent years, with an AAV around $30 million. While such a long deal may seem extreme, recent trends show a dozen players signing contracts of nine years or more in the last three offseasons. Guerrero’s projected 2024 extension is seven years, $185 million, with a 2025 projection of 15 years, $450 million.
Kyle Tucker (28) also had a strong 2023, with his comps drawing comparisons to Juan Soto. Tucker’s ability to argue for a similar AAV as Soto, albeit with a shorter deal due to age, positions him for a significant extension. His projected 2024 deal is eight years, $204 million, with a 2025 projection of 11 years, $366 million.
Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez: The Pitching Trio
Dylan Cease (29) emerged as one of baseball’s top starters in 2023, finishing in the top five for the Cy Young Award. His performance aligns him with elite pitchers like Jon Lester, making him a candidate for a six-year, $210 million deal in 2025. Cease’s projected 2024 extension is seven years, $140 million.
Zac Gallen (29), while not quite at Cease’s level, still holds significant value. His comps suggest a six-year, $187 million deal in 2025. Gallen’s projected 2024 extension is also seven years, $140 million.
Framber Valdez (31) faces challenges due to his age. Starters entering their age-32 season typically sign shorter deals unless they have a Cy Young pedigree. Valdez’s projected 2024 extension is five years, $105 million, with a 2025 projection of five years, $134 million.
Devin Williams: A Reliever with Potential
Devin Williams (30) had a strong 2023 despite missing two-thirds of the season. His per-appearance performance places him alongside recent closers like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. Williams could secure a five-year, $80 million deal in 2025, despite his limited playing time last season.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
As we delve into Extension Week, the focus remains on players whose value is less speculative, particularly impending free agents. The analysis highlights the complexities of player valuation, emphasizing the importance of recent performance, team control, and market trends. Key takeaways include:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker are poised for lucrative deals due to their elite performance and young age.
- Dylan Cease and Zac Gallen are among the top starters, with Cease’s credentials aligning him with the best in the game.
- Framber Valdez’s age presents challenges, but his recent success could still yield a significant extension.
- Devin Williams, despite limited playing time, remains a valuable closer with potential for a substantial deal.
While the likelihood of these players signing extensions varies, the analysis provides a clear picture of their market value as they approach free agency. This insight is crucial for understanding the dynamics of baseball’s financial landscape and the potential deals that could shape the future of the game.
