The Quest for a Gaza Solution: Competing Visions and Stalemate
1. Competing Visions for Gaza’s Future
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has sparked a flurry of proposals from various stakeholders about how the war might conclude and who should govern the territory post-conflict. Since the start of the war, politicians, diplomats, and analysts have put forward numerous ideas, which gained momentum after a cease-fire was brokered in January. The need for a clear postwar plan became increasingly urgent, with each proposal attempting to address the complex political and humanitarian challenges in Gaza. However, each plan presents significant challenges, as they often contain elements unacceptable to either Israel, Hamas, or Arab countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which are expected to play a key role in funding and overseeing Gaza’s future.
2. The Core Challenge: Divergent Positions
At the heart of the stalemate is a fundamental disagreement between Israel and Hamas. Israel insists on a Hamas-free Gaza, while Hamas is determined to retain its military wing, which it believes is essential for its resistance and was responsible for the October 2023 attack that sparked the war. This divergence makes it challenging to find a middle ground. Thomas R. Nides, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, succinctly captures the essence of the problem: “The devil is in the details, and none of the details in these plans make any sense.” The opposing positions of Israel and Hamas, coupled with the unacceptability of certain aspects of the Arab plan to Israel and vice versa, further complicate the negotiations.
3. Proposed Solutions and Their Pitfalls
Several proposals have emerged, each with its own set of issues. President Trump’s plan, which involves the United States governing Gaza and expelling its residents, resonates with many Israelis but is met with strong opposition from Hamas and U.S. Arab allies, who view it as a potential war crime. The Arab plan, announced in Egypt, suggests transferring power to a technocratic Palestinian government while allowing Palestinians to remain in Gaza. However, it lacks clarity on how to remove Hamas from power and is contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a proposition opposed by a majority of Israelis. An Israeli proposal suggests ceding some control to Palestinians but blocking statehood, while another advocates for Israel to occupy the entire territory. Each plan faces significant hurdles, and none have brought Israelis and Palestinians closer to an agreement.
4. The Fragile Cease-Fire and Ongoing Negotiations
Despite the numerous proposals, the situation remains precarious. The January cease-fire, initially set to last six weeks, has been informally extended, but a formal agreement seems distant. Hamas demands that Israel accept a postwar plan before releasing more hostages, while Israel insists on hostage releases without precondition. The humanitarian situation is growing direr, with Israel cutting off power to Gaza’s last desalination plant and suspending aid deliveries. These actions are seen as attempts to pressure Hamas into concessions. Meanwhile, negotiations mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States continue, with some officials expressing cautious optimism. A Hamas delegation visited Egypt, and an Israeli delegation was expected in Qatar, while American envoy Adam Boehler reported “some progress” in talks with Hamas.
5. Hopes for Compromise and the Risks of Renewed Conflict
Amid the impasse, there are glimmers of hope for compromise. A senior Hamas official, Mousa Abu Marzouq, expressed openness to negotiations about disarmament, although Hamas later distanced itself from his remarks. On the Israeli side, some officials might accept a deal securing the release of 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, but key figures in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition oppose any agreement without significant concessions from Hamas. The longer the stalemate persists, the greater the likelihood of renewed conflict. Israeli analysts warn that without a breakthrough, Israel may feel compelled to continue the war or face the untenable prospect of long-term occupation of Gaza, with its attendant costs and challenges.
6. The Consequences of Continued Impasse
The stakes could not be higher. Ofer Shelah, a former Israeli lawmaker and researcher, cautions that the current trajectory points toward an Israeli occupation of Gaza, making Israel responsible for the lives of two million Palestinians. This scenario would have far-reaching consequences, not only for the people of Gaza but also for Israel itself, which could become embroiled in a protracted and costly conflict. As Lia Lapidot and Johnatan Reiss report from Tel Aviv, the situation remains fluid, with the future of Gaza hanging precariously in the balance. The international community holds its breath, hoping that diplomacy can prevail before the fragile peace gives way to renewed violence.
