A Divided West: EU Summit Addresses Ukraine’s Future Amid US Shift in Policy
Thursday’s Summit: A Reaction to Trump’s Diplomatic Moves
The European Union convened an extraordinary summit on Thursday in response to Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to initiate negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting brought together the 27 EU leaders in Brussels to discuss the future of Ukraine, which has been a candidate for EU membership since the onset of Russia’s invasion in 2022. Trump’s push for a swift resolution to the conflict has raised alarm bells across Europe, as his approach appears to align with Kremlin talking points while failing to condemn Russia as the aggressor. This shift in the U.S. stance has left EU leaders concerned about the possibility of Washington striking a deal with Moscow without sufficient input from Ukraine, potentially forcing Kyiv into an unfavorable agreement.
The summit marks the first in-person gathering of EU leaders since Trump’s controversial 90-minute call with Putin, which led to his announcement of negotiations to end the war. Trump’s recent actions, including his confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, have rattled EU leaders, who fear a weakening of Western unity at a critical juncture in the conflict. Although tensions eased somewhat after Zelenskyy expressed regret over the Oval Office incident and praised Trump’s leadership, the White House has maintained its suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, decisions that could have dire consequences for Kyiv’s ability to defend itself.
EU leaders seek to reaffirm support for Ukraine
As the EU leaders gathered, they aimed to project unity and reaffirm their collective commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. The summit addressed key questions, including the security guarantees the EU can offer, the additional financial support it is willing to provide, and how to compensate for the potential reduction in U.S. involvement. The EU is also considering the appointment of a special envoy for the negotiations, though no names are expected to be proposed at this stage. Zelenskyy’s in-person address to the summit underscored the urgency of the situation and the need for a coordinated response.
However, the effort to present a united front may face challenges, particularly from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has closely aligned himself with the new U.S. administration. Orbán has threatened to block any initiatives that he believes could undermine Trump’s negotiating efforts, particularly those related to further military assistance to Ukraine. His opposition to the "peace through strength" approach, which emphasizes military support for Kyiv, has highlighted a growing transatlantic rift between much of Europe and the U.S. under Trump.
The Role of the "Coalition of the Willing" and Orbán’s Influence
In response to Trump’s shift in policy, a "coalition of the willing" has emerged, comprising democratic nations committed to supporting Ukraine both during and after any potential negotiations. France, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Australia have expressed interest in joining this coalition, which would provide Ukraine with security guarantees, including boots on the ground and air protection. However, these countries have stressed that their contributions must be paired with a U.S. backstop, which Trump has shown no willingness to provide. Instead, the U.S. has proposed an economic deterrence strategy focused on mineral deals, leaving European leaders uncertain about the future of transatlantic cooperation.
Orbán’s influence over the summit’s outcome remains unclear. While he has a history of wielding his veto power, he often relents at the last minute. Diplomats have worked to craft summit conclusions that accommodate all member states’ viewpoints, but there is a possibility that a more ambitious final text could be endorsed by 25 or 26 leaders, leaving Hungary and potentially Slovakia isolated. The latest draft conclusions include a mention of a proposed common fund to rapidly increase lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine, though Hungary has signaled its opposition to this initiative. The fund, championed by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, could range from €10 billion to €40 billion, but no final figure has been agreed upon.
Defense Spending and the Future of European Security
The summit also addressed the issue of defense spending, building on European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent proposal to mobilize up to €800 billion in additional investment. For the EU, Ukraine’s future and military expenditure have become two sides of the same coin. Strengthening national armies and deterring Russian expansionism are seen as essential to ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and securing a lasting peace. The summit’s draft conclusions emphasize that no negotiations affecting European security can proceed without EU involvement, underscoring the bloc’s determination to play a central role in shaping the region’s future.
A Summit of Uncertainty and Opportunity
Thursday’s summit took place against a backdrop of uncertainty, with EU leaders grappling with the implications of Trump’s diplomatic overtures to Putin and the potential fracturing of transatlantic unity. While the bloc seeks to reaffirm its support for Ukraine, the divergence in views among member states, particularly Hungary’s alignment with U.S. policy, poses a challenge to presenting a united front. The emergence of a "coalition of the willing" offers a potential path forward, but its success hinges on the willingness of member states to commit resources and on the U.S. providing a robust backstop.
As the summit concludes, the EU will need to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its commitment to Ukraine with the realities of a shifting U.S. policy. The decisions made in Brussels will have far-reaching implications for Ukraine’s future, European security, and the cohesion of the transatlantic alliance.
