What About Chinese Tourists? Understanding the Current Situation

The question of whether Chinese tourists will be allowed to enter North Korea has sparked significant interest, especially after initial reports suggested that a Chinese tour operator had begun accepting registrations for trips to the isolated nation. However, Chinese authorities have yet to give their citizens the official green light to visit North Korea. This uncertainty has left many wondering about the status of tourism between the two countries and the broader implications it may hold.

During a regular news conference, a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment on the "activities of specific travel agencies," leaving the matter unclear. This lack of clarity is notable, given that Chinese nationals once made up the vast majority of foreign tourists to North Korea. Before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, 2019 saw a record high of 350,000 Chinese visitors, highlighting the significant role Chinese tourism played in North Korea’s economy.

The Historical Context: Chinese Tourism in North Korea Pre-Pandemic

Prior to the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the lifeblood of North Korea’s tourism industry. The year 2019 marked a peak, with 350,000 Chinese visitors, a number that underscores the strong connection between the two nations at the time. This influx of tourists was not only a boon to North Korea’s economy but also a symbol of the relatively strong ties between Beijing and Pyongyang.

However, the landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, has strained relations between China and North Korea. North Korea’s decision to send troops to aid Russia’s invasion has placed it at odds with China, which has sought to maintain a neutral stance on the conflict. This divergence in geopolitical strategies has created tension, casting a shadow over the once-thriving tourism sector.

The Geopolitical Strain: How the Russia-Ukraine War Impacts Ties

The Russia-Ukraine war has introduced a new layer of complexity into the China-North Korea relationship. North Korea’s support for Russia, including the deployment of troops, has been at odds with China’s efforts to remain neutral in the conflict. This divergence has led to a deterioration in relations between Beijing and Pyongyang, a factor that analysts believe could hinder the resumption of Chinese tourism to North Korea.

Experts point to the strained relationship as a significant obstacle. Professor Park Won Gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies notes that the relationship between China and North Korea has deteriorated over the past two years. "There hasn’t been any kind of positive sign to getting closer between these two countries," he observes, adding that North Korea’s close cooperation with Russia further complicates matters.

Expert Insights: Factors Influencing the Resumption of Tourism

Analysts agree that Chinese tourists could bring much-needed economic benefits to North Korea, but they also highlight several challenges that must be overcome. According to Professor Park, the relationship between China and North Korea has been on a downward trajectory since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. He emphasizes that the current dynamics between the two nations do not suggest a swift return to the close ties that once fueled tourism.

Another factor that could influence the resumption of Chinese tourism is the relationship between the United States and China. Professor Park suggests that if U.S.-China relations deteriorate, China may see North Korea as a strategic asset, potentially leading to a more proactive approach in engaging with Pyongyang. However, he cautions that North Korea’s current stance towards the U.S. and the Western world has shifted dramatically compared to 2018 and 2019, when there were tentative moves toward diplomacy.

North Korea’s Shift: A Changing Attitude Toward the West

North Korea’s attitude toward the U.S. and the Western world has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. Unlike the period between 2018 and 2019, when there were signs of openness and tentative engagement, North Korea now appears more isolated and hostile. This shift is likely influenced by a range of factors, including the failure of previous diplomatic efforts, increased sanctions, and the country’s deepening ties with Russia.

This change in attitude has profound implications for the resumption of Chinese tourism. If North Korea continues to distance itself from the West and align more closely with Russia, it may further alienate China, which has sought to maintain a balanced approach in its international relations. The interplay between these geopolitical dynamics will be crucial in determining whether Chinese tourists will once again flock to North Korea.

The Future Outlook: Uncertainty and Geopolitical Dynamics

The future of Chinese tourism in North Korea remains uncertain, as it is heavily influenced by a complex web of geopolitical factors. While Chinese tourists have the potential to bring significant economic benefits to North Korea, the strained relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang, coupled with North Korea’s shifting attitude toward the West, presents numerous challenges.

Analysts like Professor Park argue that the resumption of Chinese tourism hinges on broader geopolitical developments, particularly the relationship between the U.S. and China. If tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, China may find greater strategic value in strengthening ties with North Korea, potentially paving the way for the return of Chinese tourists. However, if the relationship between the two superpowers stabilizes or improves, China may have less incentive to engage with Pyongyang, leaving North Korea’s tourism sector in limbo.

Ultimately, the resumption of Chinese tourism to North Korea will depend on a delicate balance of geopolitical interests and economic needs. As the situation continues to evolve, it will be important to monitor developments closely, as they hold significant implications not only for the tourism sector but also for the broader regional dynamics.